I don’t know why MI would be better for Harris than WI
Edit: well I guess MI was better for Biden. I forgot that
There was a time where I might have agreed with this but not now.
Did Stein drop out? When I voted early in Ohio, they instructed me that she had dropped out and a vote for her would not be counted.
Ok it’s this. Presidential candidate Jill Stein is on the Ohio ballot but votes for her won't matter | Ideastream Public Media
I really don’t think it would hurt him, not much anyway.
And if it’s a boy
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Yes, it is
Surely you of all people could imagine a hypothetical sex tape that would end him.
I’m certain a high quality vid of him enthusiastically engaging in a gay orgy would do the trick. MAGA ain’t voting for him after watching him get spit roasted by two dudes in 4K.
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Our leader’s wanger is too big for backdoor or even oral! Checkmate libs. TRUMP 2024!!
3000 ballots from the Las Vegas area rejected already because of missing or mismatched signatures.
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Nevada is starting to look gone to me, notwithstanding the independent voters who might be stealth dems. Ralston wrote this before the update today:
If Harris and Trump tie with indies statewide and hold 90 percent of their bases, Trump would win the state by 10,000 votes. Even if Harris were to win indies by 10 points right now and they both hold their base voters at 90 percent, she loses by 2,000 votes.
This is because the 15 rural counties are turning out in larger than usual numbers – except for a couple, they are all near or above 20 percent and some are upwards of 25 percent. And the Dems are losing by almost 3 to 1 in rural Nevada. Can the rurals keep this up? Will Clark mail begin to help the Ds catch up?
Washoe County, the swing county in this swing state, also has moved toward the GOP. The Repubs lead there by 5 points, or 2,200 votes.
The update today, from Twitter:
New numbers just dropped:
Republicans won early in-person voting again by 2-to-1, picking up 8,000 ballots.
About 400,000 people have voted, and with mail, GOP statewide lead almost 20,000 ballots.
Unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle.
Blog update coming.
Arnolds Palmers Mega Huge Cock is the October suprise. LOL Dems
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Inbox: sr. Harris official confirms Harris will give a major “closing argument” address in on the Ellipse, the site of Trump’s Jan. 6 speech
Notable: Biden probably would have done something similar if he was the nominee. The latest sign of the Harris team going back to some of the Biden strategy–referendum on Trump and focus on Democracy.
Oh good, this should be instrumental in bringing on board all those voters who are super worried about January 6 and aren’t already voting Dem.
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Again, could some of this be explained by Rs encouraging their base to vote early and vote by mail, as opposed to discouraging it in 2020?
This is all just comparing early voters from 2020 to 2024 right?
Yeah, certainly the Dems would be expected to win early voting by less than usual and the Rs to win Election Day by less than usual. I don’t think anyone expected the Rs to actually be winning early voting at this stage though. It’s still early days but we have had a third of the number of people who voted before Election Day in 2020 already vote. You can make this not mean anything, like you just need to twist the dials on your assumptions enough, but I don’t think it looks great, personally. Even if you just interpret it as showing an enthusiasm gap.
Everything is coming up Trump. Gonna be a real gjge if the Dems blow this one
His blog post followup is out. Rs now have a nearly 5-point lead on the backs of a large rural turnout and a 5-point turnout advantage in Clark County.
Something I should mention is that only around 11% of voters turn out on Election Day in Nevada, so it’s hard for “the GOP is encouraging people to vote early” to have this big an effect. Dems are left hoping that their early voters are going to be “late early voters”, so to speak, and that the indies will break their way. There is something to this and I do expect the GOP lead to get pegged back. But this is a state where they have always won early voting, probably a third of the vote is in and they are down 5 points. The assumptions needed to say this is fine, actually, are starting to seem a little desperate.
Currently Clark County is turning out at 3 points below its share of the electorate and the rurals at 4 points above theirs (with Washoe 1 point below). Dems really need Clark voters to start showing up, and even that might not be enough.