2024 US Presidential Election: Final Fortnight

“Study what General Pershing of the United States did to terrorists when caught,” Trump tweeted Thursday afternoon. “There was no more Radical Islamic Terror for 35 years!”

The tweet referenced a false story that Trump told at rallies more than once on the campaign trail. Trump claimed that during the Moro rebellion in the Philippines between 1901 and 1913, U.S. Gen. John Pershing executed Muslim insurgents with bullets dipped in pig’s blood. Trump’s retelling of the myth has changed each time.

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Yeah but this is an extremely SSC take, in 2020 only 11% of voters voted on Election Day and the GOP won them by 11 points. The way it is supposed to work in NV is that the Dems build up a statewide lead in early voting and then they see whether it is sufficient to hold back the red tide on Election Day. That’s how it worked during the Harry Reid Era, not just in 2020.

Maybe this is a blip that will correct itself as early voting continues, maybe the turnout advantage won’t translate into votes, maybe voting patterns have changed. Maybe. The vibes cannot be said to be anything but fucked, though.

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Is that US or Nevada? Either way it’s way lower than id have guessed.

https://x.com/StrictlyChristo/status/1848581011237474708

I mean, there was a reason that election day voting was the way it was in 2020. Its the definition of an anomaly, you cant possibly parse anything today about it and be even a little bit accurate

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This doesn’t seem related to my post. My only point was that counting early responses based on registration is not the same as counting actual vote deficits. We have no idea what the early vote lead is even if we do know how many registered voters from each party have returned their ballots.

COVID had a lot to do with that.

Edit: My pony tested positive.

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It’s pretty nuts that as Trump gets more insane, more fatigued, and more smooth-brained, he does better in the polls.

I mean, I know that he’s been unhinged for years, but the last few weeks have been just other-worldly.

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It’s because his absurdity is lapped up and sane washed by all forms of media, driving attention to his racism, which is very popular, and away from abortion.

He’s talking about Arnold Palmers dick, hilarious! Wasn’t America great when alpha white dudes could whip their giant dongs around, womanize endlessly and have the media cover it up! This is like the fantasy existence for most white males in this shithole country.

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Watch the Jon Stewart segment from last night. Its chilling, and its exactly what MAGA voters want. We live in a place where 40% of the people you meet might consider you an enemy of the state and want to elect a dictator to control you.

Its not hyperbolic to compare MAGA to Nazism. At least at the beginning. They didnt start off eith gas chambers and ovens, they started off by making their fellow country men the others.

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I think its time to face it. We are a nation of morons

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-holds-46-43-lead-over-trump-amid-voter-gloom-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-10-22/

“Immigration also ranked as the No. 1 issue when respondents were asked what the next president should focus on most in their first 100 days in office. Some 35% picked immigration, with 11% citing income inequality and equal 10% shares citing healthcare and taxes.”

Yeah, fuck healthcare, immigrants are taking all our jobs and houses so we need to terrorize them. This is my top priority.

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Kamala has not run a campaign that has her in the news cycle for a month plus for anything super notable. Meanwhile Trump talks about Arnie’s dick.

America is full of dummies and racists so of course Trump wins.

Nevada had a lot of people move there since 2020 (way more than enough to change the previous electorate). This is the election that will show what the state is now. You can pretty much ignore old data because Nevada was hard blue until 2022 where some races went sideways due to pandemic anger. Most big races will still easily go blue but Prez is a truly open question right now even though I still find it very hard to believe Trump will win Nevada. The state has a very low tolerance for bulls*it.

Biden won them by 20% on 2020 and was only 1% ahead in May.

https://x.com/crampell/status/1848710052569378971?t=jQqEvfSemPzM3Mg6evwtXA&s=19

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It’s actual early vote by registered party.

Yes, early vote identified by registration of the voter, not identified by the selected candidate on the ballot. Was this already obvious to everyone? I feel like there’s been a lot of ambiguity in the way this is being reported.

This is why the hide out and make things about Trump isn’t a good idea. People like abstract ideas but if they can’t tie it down to a candidate they’ll just assume whatever their preconceived ideas are and vote on them.

Trump’s been getting a ton of earned media getting his message out while Harris hasn’t been doing as much

Might be worth pointing out that Biden won Nevada by a full point more than Trump won NC. Nevada was nowhere near the ‘tipping point’ state.