Election night is going to be an absolute shitshow and we are drawing dead to even know who won.
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Holy shit we are all over the place
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That was when I turned everything off, including my phone, and had a very slow 2 hour workout. I was sure when I checked back in with you guys that weād be in a repeat of 2016, and was so pleasantly surprised.
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i wrote-in āneverā.
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Thatās Republican, they count those. 
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PA and Wisconsin arenāt even allowed to start counting absentee ballots until election day. IMO, in order to know by Tuesday night or even Weds (and I mean āknowā as in networks are calling it, not āthe UP hive mind has read Ralston Reports and done some mathā) weād have to have a pretty big blowout relative to current polling.
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Is this so they can burn down the poll counting locations if needed like in Succession.
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In case you missed it, Jon calls out the insanity and the spineless fucks on the right who deny reality
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Phenomenal. If they voteā¦
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I am gearing up to bet the election and would appreciate credible Twitter follows, so far I have @Nate_Cohn, @ForecasterEnten, @Redistrict, @NateSilver538 and @RalstonReports.
I have made my first large bet, which is Trump to not win any āsolid blueā states. Return will be 23.5% on my money. The closest āsolid blueā state according to Silver Bulletin is New Mexico, where even Rasmussen gave Harris a 6 point lead. I guess Virginia would be the second closest. It gets more unrealistic from there.
Speaking of, his latest update in Nevada is not great.
The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.
ā¦
The Rs lead by about 8,000 votes statewide, or 3 percentā¦ The Rs have a nearly 2-point turnout advantage, and nearly 250,000 votes have been cast. Thatās probably not too far from a fifth of the total vote.
Itās too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.
So I have some money on a narrow GOP win in NV and money against Kamala winning by 4+ points. Biden won the state by 2.39%, which was actually less than the 2.42% Clinton won it by. So a further slide towards the GOP seems probable and 4+ points is most definitely out of reach given the data so far.
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manā¦fuck the electoral college
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The vibes are definitely increasingly fucked, I havenāt been reading threads much so maybe this has been discussed, but all this āBlack menā outreach is incredibly cringe. Like who knows how it plays to undecided voters because they are a weird breed, but it has a bit of a desperate loserish stink about it. The internal polling for Black men must be Not Great.
I mean, is this even considered good news? Iād hope it was closer to 40.
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Vibes are definitely feeling grim around here, but I just want to make sure my understanding is correct. All of these statistics relate to voter registration, not actual votes, right? So in the (Sweet Summer Child) world where Harris manages to slice off a bunch of Republican votes, these numbers arenāt a negative signal.
Yes, and yes that is very much the SSC way of looking at it.