509 yards for Cousins
r/the_darnold NFC offensive player of the month! Exactly like everyone thought would happen going into the season.
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I just love the halfway commitments. Either run the damn ball three times to burn TOs or be aggressive and go get the first down.
Run run incomplete pass is the worst of all outcomes.
They did not throw any incomplete passes. The did throw one pass, but it was for -2 yards and clearly designed to be a “safe” completion to waste a couple more seconds than a run.
You don’t have to go for a first down here. But you have to try and pick up 5-10 yards on 2 plays to attempt a FG. Your guy hit two 53-yarders earlier in the evening.
Is win probability that much higher up 6 rather than up 3? It’s ostensibly harder to get a TD than a FG, but a TD is always a loss, but a tying FG is only a loss ~half the time, so forcing your opponent to go for the win at all costs isn’t a terribly good proposition.
Looks like 89% if they successfully kick a FG vs 81% for punting. Seems considerable.
https://x.com/ben_bot_baldwin/status/1842041633593757819?s=46&t=hICOYYyCHuimCJQWftVfBQ
My example was a more an illustration of what we see all the time.
The safe pass thing is often bullshit. Eagles dropped one vs Atlanta. That was one where they clearly should have gone for the TD on 4th down. A tying field goal isn’t the worst outcome. If you have a chance to end the game, just go for it.
I scream at my screen every time I see this done late in the 4th. It’s probably not the incorrect play all the time, but it’s certainly the wrong decision a lot of the time.