2024 NFL Gameday Thread

Wasn’t it a football tweet at Super Bowl that had him fly back to Twitter headquarters the night of the Super Bowl to change how he gets engagement because Biden got more likes for congratulating the same team?

Yes.

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Forgot it was eagles. Elon really making all my football dreams come true, can’t wait for a penn state tweet.

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lol, right. Everyone knows that it’s totally normal to cheer for the Steelers and Eagles.

Edit: Also, lol @ having deleted the tweet. Like, no matter how heartbreaking a Super Bowl loss might be for any fan base, and I’ve endured at least one bad one and another that might have been bad but while I was still riding high, I can’t imagine bothering to delete my fanboi tweets from before the game after the agonizing defeat. No real fan would be ashamed of their fandom after any Super Bowl loss, no matter how agonizing.

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Ok, 3 !s for the Eagles only two for Pittsburgh. He’s Philly’s problem.

Bad enough to do two Pennsylvania teams… Honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Elon put up a @cowboys support tweet by the end of the season, if they are doing well. It would be the perfect team to alienate both Steelers and Eagles fans too! I’m not sure Jerry Jones wants him around though.

Is there one team or the other that tends to dominate the squishy Alabama-MAGA center of PA, or is it more of a hard dividing line somewhere in the vicinity of State College? I’m not savvy on my rural PA sports fandom trends.

Gg

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Take it down, Elon.

I always hate when I have to be a Cowboys fan for a game, but eat it Elon

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Cowboys have beaten Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones and Justin Fields. Woohoo

Do they not have lightning in the Middle East?

So I vowed to come back to this one after thinking on it a bit more. Full disclosure, I’m a Buffalo Bills fan and I’m about to attempt to rationalize this line of strategy, but please understand that I hate Sean McDermott with the passion of a thousand burning suns and feel like he’s actively ruining the career of the greatest player in NFL history and is generally a moron that performs considerably below average at game management (see: 13 seconds).

That said, here’s how I saw it.

The Texans and DeMeco Ryans made (imo) one of most egregious strategic blunders I’d ever seen in a game just prior to the controversial situation:

0:44 to go, 3rd and 5 on the BUF 39. BUF has zero timeouts, and a 56 yard game winning field goal attempt (lol chip shotaments) is in hand. Obviously, you run in this spot to try to get a few yards, and far more importantly to burn off the last 0:40 seconds and free roll your winning kick. Instead…

(:44) (Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete short right.
PENALTY on HOU-C.Stroud, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 39.

My god, they deserved to lose the game and have the franchise folded on the spot. If Houston ends up losing, I don’t see how this wouldn’t have been a hugely fireable offense.

But, their punter absolutely positively bails them out, and pins the Bills back on their own goal line with 0:32 on the clock.

Texans have 3 timeouts.

Everyone says the Bills should have gone heavy and ran up the middle three times. I say maybe not, and extemporaneously was saying they should be throwing to try to get the first down, and here’s why:

  • 3 goal line runs are not the Bills most effective way of getting a first down, and one first down guarantees overtime at worst
  • Passing has a small (but non-zero) chance of generating a chance to win the game with a field goal attempt
  • Passing plays, particularly those with scrambling elements and throws going downfield will run more time off the clock per play than short yardage runs > timeout
  • Your opponent will likely be expecting you to run
  • Josh Allen is your best player by a country mile

With a passing line of strategy, I feel like your expectation if you go incomplete/incomplete/incomplete is that you run an average of 5-6 seconds per play (call it 16 seconds total) before you punt with ~ 0:16 left. Punts usually take say 6 seconds, so you’re looking at giving the ball back with around 10 seconds on the clock and your opponent will have timeouts remaining. They’ll be able to run at most 1 play before attempting a field goal.

Consider the run-run-run line, where I’ll assume that the plays will take about 4 seconds before the defense takes a timeout. 0:32 → 0:20. Punt the ball, you’re looking at something like 0:14 on the clock with zero timeouts. Even if you concede that the running plays were likely to net more yardage than 3 incompletions (maybe 5 yards, we’ll say) and ignore that one of the incompletions could have gained yardage, we’ll say that you gain 5 yards of field position. The Texans would likely still have enough time to run a single play anywhere on the field and get a spike to set up a field goal attempt.

Now, there may be some additional cons to passing in that spot:

  • Somewhat higher likelihood of a safety due to sack or holding in end zone
  • Somewhat higher likelihood of an interception vs. a fumble (maybe?)
  • You could potentially run on first down, assess, and then choose to pass on second/third down (though you progressively lose the element of surprise) whereas throwing on first down commits you to continue throwing since you’ll no longer be able to drain your opponent of all times out
  • Josh Allen was likely concussed and may have thought he was the Batman

I’ll concede those points, and still think that the increased chance of getting a first down and eliminating all regulation jeopardy (plus the backdoor chance of going downfield and winning the game outright) outweighs those disaster chances. And, I feel like benefit of the Texans not having a timeout and maybe losing a few yards of field position are not that significant, when in either case they’d likely be able to run one play before taking a long field goal chance.

Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk. F McDermott.

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I think as BUF, you run it the first time and see what happens. If you get 7 yards, Ryans might not even call his TO. If you get stuffed, then yeah maybe you think about throwing. But also making them burn all three TOs is pretty important.

As for the Texans, they were trying to avoid the thing we always complain about, settling for a 50+ yard FG. Stroud just didn’t execute, 2nd year mistake.

Odds of a run from your goal line getting 7 yards in that spot? Has to be very, very, very small. I agree that, generally, getting them to burn 3 times out is pretty important as a rule of thumb. But, just not in this exact situation.

And I also generally agree that being aggressive rather than settling is good, but that doesn’t totally apply to the ABSOLUTE free roll plays. Like, this is so much different than the Bengals spot because missing the kick almost assuredly gives your opponent the win on the comeback, so you’d absolutely better maximize make%.

Same way that being aggressive when it’s do or die when you’re behind one or two is crucial. Maximizing make% there is mandatory because the result is definitive with no counterplay.

On the other hand, the Texans had the absolute ability to guarantee their kick was the last play of regulation in a tied game, whereas the nominal gain of yardage is really only adding a few percentage points to your make probability and that benefit is way watered down by the prospects you’d have in overtime.

All I know is Buffalo had the ball with very little time left and since overtime seemed to be a given I went to the Bathroom only to return to the Texans in fg range. I didn’t see what happened but I know it was the wrong thing.

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Now this guy footballs.

FYP

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The chiefs are so good but that #74 is so bad. They really have no better option? It’s like he has incriminating pictures of Andy or something.

He’s actually really good in protection. He just makes 1 to 3 penalties per game.