2024 Election POST MORTEM

https://x.com/torriangray/status/1853841751330496798

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You will find takes of mine going back years basically stating that actually succeeding at overturning Roe would be an electoral mistake for just this reason. It energizes their base and our voters mostly didnā€™t care.

It was like Trump and the border. They didnā€™t want to actually solve the issue, they wanted to run on it. Their party being taken over by ideologues is a bit of a mixed bag.

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image

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Minnesota as pure tossup is absurd.

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How am I supposed to take anyone who has Minnesota as a tossup seriously?

iā€™m going to admit my ignorance that i know literally nothing about guam, but is it weird that they have 27k votes on an island with 175k people?

The votes donā€™t matter, so I canā€™t say Iā€™m that surprised.

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Losing Roe was a victory in the long run.

i agree, but the problem with that line of thinking is that officially codifying roe also becomes a loss in the long run for the dems.

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String bet

if MN is a tossup then so is IA

Both the percentage of folks who are registered to vote and the turnout rate are lower in Guam than the US average.

Vibes: improving

https://x.com/thepoliticalhq/status/1853847837525651587?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

LOL IN MY VEINS

https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1853854715450212688?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

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2C602864-7D18-49EE-87E6-0022C02420FC

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Why would you expect less turnout honestly? As a modeler

Thereā€™s more evidence for IA to be a tossup because of the Selzer poll.

Just looked at every MN poll on 538 and literally all of them have Kamala ahead.

Remember when every poll showed Susan Collins losing in Maine? Pepperidge farm remembers.

Kamala wins this ez, over tonight Iā€™m telling you

Bet all my 130 bovada bucks

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I donā€™t like the betting sites, but if someone here wants to give a reasonable line I will put money on Kamala

Every time I see ā€œPhiladelphia,ā€ my brain goes, ā€œThe Illadelph.ā€

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