I have no fucking clue, lol.
Possibility one. Trump overperformed polls in 2016 and 2020 that showed him well behind. The trend continues and Trump wins in a landslide.
Possibility two. Polls are all made up herded bullshit. There tends to be more peripheral evidence now that mainstream polling is wrong and missing a lot of Kamala support (see: Selzer poll showing Harris +3 in Iowa). Harris wins in a landslide.
Possibility three. The polls are right and this thing comes down to the wire.
To this day, I still see elb instead of a stylized M.
I’ve seen enough
There’s no way that was just a “stylized M”, right? elb till I die.
Right. This is kind of exactly what I expected but there are a million threads freaking out with “OMG REP EARLY TURNOUT DOOM AND GLOOM, AND THEYLL WIN DAY OF VOTING BY 30 POINTS LIKE IN 2020”
and Im like, that second point is so far off track.
yeah, not buying possibility 1
this is first post-Roe election and EVERYTHING (but lol betting markets) is pointing to her winning
and yeah, I believe that there is herding (it’s math) and that by far the most likely scenario for that herding is pollsters getting +4 or +5 Harris and updating demographics to get to tied/+1/+2 because they don’t want to be wrong on trump again
women are higher for harris than men are for trump and more women are voting than men, including in swing states (which of course is all that really matters)
The genrral vibe of this place has turned to quiet optimism after the Seltzer poll and Trump looking REALLLLLLLLLLLLY down in the dumps the last three days.
Holding our breath but more confident than weve been in at least 3-4 weeks.
I was a senior in high school when he came up. Almost 53 now. I was done with baseball by 1995.
It’s been 5 days, man up already.
OK, “Expos de Montréal Baseball” seems to make things right. Can’t believe this is still in theory-land.
Oh fuck I always thought it was JLB
a lot of the red counties in GA already had large turnout so they just don’t have enough people left to have high Election Day turnout. Towns County had 70% vote already so only have 3k left that can vote.
votes early are better because they are banked and happened, but they do take away from election day votes
It’s been over since trump saidnthey are eating the cats
That shit gets through to normies.
Zero shot it’s anything other than something like Expoos Le Baisbolle or whatever in french.
Been riding the vibes the last few days but ngl, the “OMG HUGE LINE IN BUBMBLEFUCK TOWN PA” stuff you see while doomscrolling has me a little shook this morning. No outcome would surprise me at this point, except maybe Kamala 300+ EV.
I think Kamala +300 is wayyyyyyy more likely than Kamala +270-+299
Biden was 300+ EV, why would that surprise you?
Jim Rice was my guy growing up. I feel very confident he does not support Trump.
2008 had me shook when there were huge lines in bumblefuck town MI where I lived. Obama shipped it easily. While there are probably a lot of useful metrics that can be used to gauge turnout and vote swing, lines outside a particular polling place are probably the nut low.
