So we have
Pluses for ball first
-start first possession of sudden death if it gets there
-rest defenses
Minuses for first ball
-any stop and the other team only needs a FG. Basically sudden death starts on the 2nd possession
-other team has 4th down decisions made for them. First possessor has an awful time on 4th and 5 at their own 30. If they punt the other team needs any score. If they fail to pick it up they give the ball back in FG range
-other team SHOULD always go for 2 if they are down 1 after a TD. Can’t give the ball over tied and sudden death.
-other team should pass up a lot of FGs to tie on short fourth downs for the same reason- handing the ball over for sudden death.
I’m not so sure about always. I’d say most of the time.
Here’s a stat that I found:
That time period was before each team was guaranteed an OT possession. If the team scored on first possession, it was over. That doesn’t seem that bad. That’s not too far off from what a team’s 2pt conversion rate might be. And that can fluctuate based on various factors (e.g. how good the opposing defense is). It doesn’t seem too farfetched that there are times when a team might be better off kicking it and going to sudden death.
On the other hand if you go back even farther, and include stats from all the way back to the 70s, then team winning the toss in sudden death OT approaches 60 percent. So if that stat is more reflective of reality, then I would say everyone should always go for 2 in that spot. But it’s possible that including games that old may not be applicable to today’s game.
And that you have one of the top offenses in the league assuming you are a playoff team.
So the XP route works out to a little less than 50%. I think a good offense can beat that.
And if you are facing an above average offense, giving them the ball in sudden death is probably worse than the average.
The Chiefs had already decided to go for two if they got the situation. One play, ball in Mahomes hands. Kind of makes the choice easier (of course LOL the Packers a few years ago taking the FG instead of having Rodgers go for it).
