I’m interested to see how 2022 turnout works out. Not having trump is going to mess with turnout both ways, but I think it could benefit dems on net.
There is a theory out there that people have become more partisan and polarized, so you won’t see as many party switching voters between 2020 and 2022 as in previous mid-terms. Also, some believe that the vaccine means that Dems are going to be going door-to-door in full force, so GOTV efforts will actually be more effective this time around.
Of course, 2022 could end up being a referendum on the value of mask mandates and lockdowns.
Moving forward, elections are all about turnout. Some potentially relevant factors:
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Do a meaningful number of Republicans sit out elections because they actually think they’re rigged / they don’t care if Trump isn’t on the ballot?
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Do a meaningful number of Democrats sit out out of frustration with the Washington Generals routine?
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Does the voter suppression backfire by motivating democrats to vote?
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Does the war on absentee / mail in voting backfire because old white people disproportionately use it absent a pandemic?
There is no obvious answer to these, IMO.
Honestly seems like a lock Dems at least lose the house with these new laws. Republicans going to gain like 10 seats with gerrymandering alone. And even if people want to turn out, if you’re poor and in one of these states with new voter suppression laws, it’s going to be hard to vote.
Then, once Dems lose any power to fight back, these laws are going to get much worse.
The deplorables will turn out. The culture war and politics is literally their entire identity. Yeah trump lost but they will still vote.
Dems I don’t know. I expect a huge GOTV effort now with vaccines but I feel like most are probably comfortable now that trump’s gone. Suburbs likely to go back red.
Keeping in mind that the dead don’t turn out, has anyone done at least a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the effect of COVID death on R vs D turnout. It can’t be good for the GOP, but I’m still not convinced that we’re talking about high enough numbers to be significant.
The Rs control 40 fewer seats this time for gerrymandering purposes compared to 2011. The Ds control 20 more. The rest are bipartisan or split control.
+1. I was lulled into believing there was a chance that Ernst was going down. Of course, she held pretty easily. I’m not falling for it a second time. Pigdin man has it locked.
+2, zero hope for Iowa after “no clue how much corn is worth” lady waffle crushed
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Also they’re addicted to outrage. They’re not going to disengage. They don’t believe elections are rigged because they are pursuing a deeper understanding of the world that guides their future actions. They want to go vote and then kick and scream and bitch and complain and demand to speak to the manager because they didn’t get what they want.
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“In unprecedented times like these, Democrats need to vote like Democrats,” Fetterman, a U.S. Senate candidate, said in a statement. “We have the majority, we have the presidency, we have the House, we have the Senate – so let’s act like it.”
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1420448738733174792
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Well, see y’all in the wine cave
https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/1420728702737002500?s=21
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A couple months ago I spoke to the campaign manager for weightlifting video guy and told him that modern campaigns need good digital, and a nice, splashy, “my story” video to introduce himself was the way to go.
Crickets.
This is what I mean. I bet Joe Rocha has already raised more money off this than the other guy has total.
https://twitter.com/joseph_c_rocha/status/1422196259176292360?s=21
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The Republican Senate primaries are absolute horror shows. They’re going to nominate mentally insane people in every race. I’m done thinking that’s automatically bad for GOP chances, but it’s definitely bad for fading fascism.
yeah I am amazed that in 2020 the TN GOP nominated a relatively normie business guy to replace Lamar! (this is extremely relative, the guy did vote against certifying the electoral college but he is 500x better than our other dipshit senator (blackburn) and still probably in the top 5% of sane GOPers, which basically tells you how far down the rabbit hole we are). His closest GOP challenger was a MD who was basically a Mitt Romney type republican, and I think he might have been half-asian, so of course dude got curbstomped by like 40 points.
if they had that primary today it would 100% be a MTG clone.
This is deeply unhealthy, both ways. Every state is going to do this, it’s an arms race. Creates horrible incentives all around and all but ensures we will be governed by deeply corrupt psychos. This is, as with all things voting, the fault of John Roberts.
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1427389029562077188?s=21
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Yeah it’s unhealthy but its nice to see the Dems fight back. Lol at all the Dems States with independent commissions. Nice self own losers.
Not sure if Dems could out gerrymander but if they could they should. Just make CA 54-0 and make the supreme court or Republicans beg to fix it
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CA NOT GOAT is already 42-11, but every seat counts.
We’re waiting with bated breath here in San Diego county, since a lot of internal party/political rumors have been saying that it’ll be one of our districts to get the axe, and if not us, then one of the Orange County/Riverside districts.
It will be tough to get rid of the huge (in area) inland districts because there just aren’t enough people out there to expand other red districts to cover them. Current scuttlebutt says that 41 or 42 in OC/Riverside or 49 or 52 in OC/SD counties might go. Those would be the easiest to absorb.
In terms of flipping the 50th, losing the 42nd would be bad, because they would expand us north to cover more of Murrieta and Temecula, which would make us even redder. Any of the others would probably help the 50th because they are at least purple, if not blue.
If the state let Democrats draw the lines, I’d get rid of 42 anyway, since that’s a republican seat…get rid of one R and isolate the red voters in 50 and 36. But it’s an independent commission, so who knows what the fuck will happen.
I wish they’d get rid of a bay area district but that part of the state runs everything, so they won’t.
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And the only way to ever get Rs to support voting rights is to ram voting rights abuses down their throats until they start screaming for protections. They are officially the party of “I Don’t Care Until It Affects Me Personally”, so in that environment you’ve got to make it hurt personally for them. As you say, it sucks but the alternative is to roll over and die while complaining about “norms” and “honor”.
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