Short term: Definitely
Long term: Less definitely, but still likely net positive
So Dems are extremely likely to lose the House, but they could flip PA and WI, but likely lose GA. AZ will be close. Could net a seat in the Senate, if theyâre lucky. Maybe two if the GOP punts us a seat with a lunatic a la Roy Moore.
Unfortunately their odds of getting a trifecta in 2024 are even lower than it might otherwise appear. Theyâre defending the whole Senate map basically. No real flip opportunities (FL, OH, TX, MO are the closest). They defend WV, MT, OH, AZ, MI, PA, WI, NV, VA, ME.
If they win the presidency theyâre still probably expected to lose an average of 2.5 Senate seats. Thatâs why they really needed to crush it with this trifecta and capitalize on the current map. They need to hold GA and flip PA, WI, and one of NC/OH/FL to have a real shot at a trifecta with 51+ in 2024.
Obviously thatâs a gargantuan task even when the administration isnât failing.
Not drawing dead to Republicans finding a way to do something incredibly dumb or some 9/11 level cataclysmic event that changes the political landscape.
Yeah I mean itâs harder for them to do something that dumb on a broad scale when theyâre not in charge, but it might be like 50-50 or better that they put a safe red state in play by nominating someone who says something batshit crazy and offensive during the general election.
Dems need Ukraine to win and supply chains to at least begin to normalize and for Biden to be able to take a victory lap for it and sell that the two were connected and unavoidable but we prevailed through expert foreign policy. Then sign a bunch of popular, if not entirely legal EOs, and dare the GOP to fight them.
Like itâs astronomically stupid that this would work but he should just announce $2K for everyone again, and make the GOP sue to stop him from doing it unilaterally. Make every headline that Dems want to give you money and the GOP wants to stop them. Obviously courts would strike it down so he wouldnât have to actually do the thing he doesnât want to do.
He should do stuff like that on abortion, weed, student loans, gerrymandering, tax cuts for the middle class, etc.
Itâs nothing more than messaging and dictating the frame of the election.
The GOP is reasonably likely to have a filibuster proof majority and a trifecta in 2024.
They absolutely canât run Biden again, but they will.
Theyâre definitely favored to have a trifecta, I think 59 is pretty realistic but 60 is tough but possible.
2022: GA, AZ, NV
2024: MT, WV, OH, PA, MI, WI, NV, VA, ME
They need 10/12. NV twice, VA, and ME should be very hard for them to flip.
Not that it matters, their average expected seats in 2025 is probably like 56 or 57 and there is very little they canât do with 56 that they can do with 60.
They can kill the ACA either way, they can probably kill Medicaid and privatize Social Security either way. The main thing they canât do is make abortion illegal federally, but they can just find some asinine way to connect it to the budget and get the 5-4 LOL GFY LIBS ruling.
Like they can do the Obamacare tax penalty that wasnât a fine, except for having or performing an abortion, or knowing of one in advance in your household and not reporting it, and make it like $1,000,000 and garnish wages for it. Getting an abortion would basically be a life sentence of homelessness.
The most likely outcome by far is the GOP gets to impose its will on the country in 2025 and 50% of the country is like WTF they actually meant that crazy shit they said??? While 20% of us are like we fucking told you and 30% are driving around F-150s with MAGA and Confederate flags shooting AR-15s into the sky to celebrate.
Hyperbole meter: 3/10
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Definitely add NH to this list.
And I donât think itâs crazy to think that CO is in play if things go really bad.
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Lolol fuck off Mitt
With your $200 million IRA you never paid any tax on. Fucking asshole
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We tell teenagers they have to go to a decent college if they want any kind of a middle-class career, expect them to navigate a loan system theyâre not prepared for, and then act like student debt is the moral equivalent of an ordinary consumer loan, fuck off with that.
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Now we just need an aspiring young White House reporter with piles of debt to ask Jen Psaki about it!
Also side note, heâs not wrong, but for someone who seems to âget itâ vis a vis democracy, he doesnât seem to get what happens next. Unless the whole getting it thing is a bullshit act for his legacy.
This former geography bee champ always messed up VT/NH. Doh!
Thielâs got a Roth IRA worth like $5-6 billion. I think he put PayPal founders shares in there or something? Anyway, zero tax paid on gains when heâs 59 1/2, rich win again.
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Geography bee champ at what level?
Won my school in 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th grades. T-10th in the state one year - I think 7th grade. Small state, though.
God forbid we put a cap on the whole tax free growth thing. Like Iâm all for it in theory, but how about we cap it at, I dunno, a billy? Even thatâs fucking egregiously high, should be like $5M or something and then index it to inflation. Tax the next $5M at some intermediary rate, tax everything over $10M for the full amount.
Of course then the GOP would get to be against the death tax and the retirement tax.
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Not to mention republicans all across the country have been cutting funding for public universities.
I think I made the top ten in Ohio in eighth grade, but I canât remember exactly how well I did. I remember the prizes included a National Geographic board game.
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Sadly we had an 11-way tie for 10th and I choked on the tiebreaker. I then sat in the audience and knew like 90% of the questions in the finals.
One of two times in my life Iâve choked hard, the other was in the finals of my golf league the first year I was in it, with a few holes left my swing went to complete shit under the pressure. Came back the next time I was in the league and won the finals in a playoff, it was a three way match and one opponent choked on the last hole of regulation. Me and the other guy went to a four hole playoff and tied again, I got him on the second hole of sudden death when he finally choked and turned a bogey into like a triple bogey. I made a par. Golf under pressure is hard. Super proud of that round, despite being the most pressure Iâve ever had on the course (just a beer league, but I wanted it bad lol), I was on a pace to match my best 18-hole score if I finished the last few holes.
Didnât get to do the same with the geography bee, though, unfortunately. Hopefully those experiences prepared me for performing under pressure if/when I ever get deep at the WSOP.