Boebert’s now up 794. I know we’ve had a few tweets saying she might sneak into the lead, but that seems like a pretty substantial buffer no?
https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590806015263797250
https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590806017193177088
Looks like they did all the in person first. The mailins should break harder for Adam.
2 Likes
I also just think Inflation creates a mild annoyance that doesn’t translate to voting all that well. Sure people are annoyed that groceries are 10% higher than they were 2 years ago, but very few people get mad enough to want a change in government.
Unemployment affects fewer people when it rises, but those people are way angrier about the state of the economy.
Yeah exactly.
Thete were a few Unstuckers saying Trafalgar was the gold standard.
538 has them as an A firm
My roast beef sandwiches were 4/$10. Back in my day they were 5/$5.
Cliffs: the real state of play is more like 212-209 GOP lead. Four seats favor us, five are toss-ups IMO, two are unknown, three I don’t see happening. We need 5/7 toss-ups/unknowns to take the House
Here’s the full post:
Alright, I can’t resist. NY Times has 209-191 in called races, including two uncalled D vs D showdowns going to us, because duh.
Called for Dems elsewhere:
CO-08
NY-18
AZ-04
OR-04
CA-35
CA-38
CA-46
Called for GOP elsewhere:
AZ-02
AZ-06
CA-40
Comfortable wins IMO:
AK-AL
NV-01
NV-03
NV-04
(Ralston indicated he thinks those three in NV will hold, though he didn’t call them)
That gets us to:
GOP 212
Dems 202
We lead 12:
ME-02
WA-03
WA-08
AZ-01
OR-06
CA-06
CA-09
CA-21
CA-26
CA-41
CA-47
CA-49
We trail 9:
NY-22
MD-06
CO-03
OR-05
CA-03
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
So where do we go from there? Without diving into each one of these in mind-numbing fashion, the votes left to count in CA are mail-ins, so I’m going to say we are probably going to hold the seven CA seats we lead that are still counting mail-ins, which should favor us.
That gives us:
GOP 212
Dems 209
CA-13 we trail, but by 0.2% with half the vote in and Cook rated it Dem toss-up. I like our chances of winning that one, given that Cook favored us and the remaining votes should be mail-ins. Obviously not a guarantee. In ME-02, the Dem has claimed victory. I doubt he’s doing that without a ton of certainty. OR-06 is a Cook rated Dem toss-up, and we currently lead. Let’s give ourselves that one.
That gives us 212.
We trail MD-06, but the outstanding vote is friendly and it was rated likely Dem by Cook. Are we really going to lose a likely Dem seat in a state we flipped the governor’s mansion red->blue? Probably not. 213.
We lead in three that I believe are basically coin flips to hold: WA-03, WA-08, AZ-01.
I believe CO-03 is a toss-up.
We trail in CA-22, seems gettable.
That leaves two we trail in that I don’t know enough about what’s left to begin to guess: OR-05, CA-45
If we take 5 of those 7 toss-ups/unknowns, we take the house. The toss-ups should correlate somewhat.
There are also three we trail in that I don’t see us getting: NY-22, CA-03, CA-27. If one of them goes our way, great sign.
9 Likes
In a sufficiently close election, we need to worry about party switchers after the election.
Alternatively, we need to encourage party switchers after the election.
If the GOP winds up with a microscopic majority, can we at least assume that we won’t be in for nonsense impeachments and the like over the next two years? I can’t imagine the vulnerable reps in blue states would have any appetite for it.
You’d need all committee chairs to buy in to that.
Jim Jordan is the ranking member on the House Judiciary committee. If he becomes chairman, do you think he’s going to restrain himself from using his gavel to engage in buffoonery?
I don’t think we get a successful impeachment, but we’re definitely getting some Hunter Biden hearings.
1 Like
The second greatest deal in fast food behind the Wendy’s 99c double stack
Hes underestimating CA3 imo, especially if remaining votes are majority mail in. The number of BA transplants to 03 over the last two years is staggering
Used to buy 20 (growing boys). Had some excitement when the 12 year old microwaved one in the foily wrapper.
1 Like
Lol, I have also made a sparkshow microwaving an Arbys roast beef once upon a time
1 Like
Some talking head said the deal for McCarthy would be he would have to sign off on impeachment proceedings.
I can’t even tease him about it since I did something much dumber.
When going through the early stages of separation we agreed to both stay in the house but not have a turkey for thanksgiving. Daughter at age nine three a fit so we got a small frozen bird on Wednesday morning.
I put it inside the oven to thaw to keep the cats away. When I got up I just went down and put the oven on to preheat. Forgot about the bird. In the wrapper. We were able to salvage some of, though it tasted a bit plastic-y.
Also of course depends on remaining vote. If majority is from Roseville/Folsom/East Sac/Tahoe, then good news. If the majoriry is from Lincoln/Auburn/Tahoe City/ Truckee areas, then not super great news
Why didn’t you just buy her a Cornish hen and tell her it was a baby turkey?