Goofy, lay me 98-1 for any amount (up to a dollar)
Sorry @yuv I was grunching and didn’t see your community backed admonition until now
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The crazy Republican candidates always under perform compared to the normie candidates. This has been going on since the tea party started. The media is shifting this to blame Trump, but really its just normal life in the GOP.
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The news reporting was a bit credulous, but at the same time it seems like all the polling data was worse than it’s ever been. It’s not too surprising that people’s expectations were way off.
It seems like a reasonable argument that there are more crazies as a result of Trumpism. He was actively endorsing crazies in primaries.
Was it, though? Or were certain firms (Trafalgar) way off, pulling the averages off?
Almost all the candidates Trump promoted have gotten smoked. In some cases the state went like +8 red overall and the Trumpy candidate still lost.
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Twitter seems to think the legit polls were on point, while RCP and Trafalgar have lost all credibility now.
The media of course is blaming the pollsters because they can’t blame themselves, that’s just gibberish.
That’s legit good evidence, and fuckin hilarious too
Well sure now we know they’re bad, did we know that before the election? Kinda seems like overall the polling was way off.
Trump is refusing to delay his announcement to after the GA runoff, which if you believe DanSpartan’s post in the hopium thread, might still be avoidable.
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Yeah if you took stock in RCP over Nate Cohn. But I think there were signs that RCP and Trafalgar weren’t super legit before the election. Journalists ran with them anyway because red wave is such a juicy story and they’re beholden to corporate overlords who want the D party to be less progressive.
Gonna be great to watch the GOP try to slowly push Trump out only for him to eventually wake up and go, “Fuck that! I’m running an independent campaign!”, thus splitting the GOP in two.
Kinda hard to blame journos too much for predicting a red wave that failed to materialize. The Dems performed super well compared to normal midterm expectations, even before accounting for high inflation environment.
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One thing there didn’t seem to be a lot of is allegedly higher quality polling in general; maybe bad R polls flooded them out, but I saw far fewer NBC/ABC/Fox News(they pool good)/CNN polls and many others while scrolling around. Granted these were pretty off in 2020 on the Senate so they would have received the lol treatment but it would be interesting to look at those after the fact to see if they did anything better this time.
I dont think stuff like the 538 models were that bad. Dems outperformed their median projections, but there wasnt really anything like oh Susan Collins is in trouble and trailed in all polls whoops won by 10 points. Closest was the Boebert race and she’s like the definition of a special case (and theres always a few headscratchers in the House with the number of races/less polling)
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Yeah that was the thing in my mind. Obviously midterms are usually bad. But there were so many other variables.
Bad for Ds:
- Inflation/gas prices
- Midterms usually bad for sitting pres
CRIME CRIME CRIME!!! BORDER BORDER BORDER!!! FENTANYL!!! might have energized the base. But normie swing voters don’t care about that shit. I also think we don’t give them enough credit for realizing the President doesn’t directly control the economy. At least not until they lose their job.
Good for Ds:
- Outrage about abortion
- Unemployment low
- Normies scared of Trump (they won’t be of Desantis)
- White male president
I think #4 is much bigger than people realize. RW media has gone ballistic on Biden for 2 years, and they constantly lament that they just can’t get people to hate Biden like Obama or HRC. The same fear/annoyance triggers just don’t work. Bill Clinton had a great midterm after he got a BJ in the Oval Office!
Really looking forward to Mason Malmuth’s post mortem on Trafalgar’s performance.
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Lack of access to funding is a big part of how the Left is locked out of access to power.
Saying we can raise funds is, well, like telling women to have a bake sale so that we can avoid being made into reproductive slaves in 2-3 years.
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