Trafalgar!
6 Likes
What I am picking up here is that the Republican Party is aiming for a national abortion ban by federal legislation by 2025. Some Democrats are going to help them get there, whether wittingly or not. A weaker-than-ever Left, systematically locked out of access to power except in a minority of states, is all we have.
Al Franken
This is surely because California counts slowly.
Holy shit, those numbers might even be good enough for Sisolak to have life. I havenât run the math, though.
South Carolina abortion ban officially not happening after the (R) dominated House and Senate fail to agree on how insane of a law to pass.
1 Like
I didnât get the impression that NY Dems were running in being tough on crime. In fact the Republican ads were attacking Dems for creating a âcrime wave.â Lee Zeldin kept running some ads with his daughters talking about how some crime happened right in front of their house. Obviously the NY Dems fucked up, but I think redistricting explains the change in vote shares more than any policy position. If formerly safe D districts are now competitive, then more Rs will show up to vote.
Fetterman did a good job of having police officials in his ads and talk about his local record in Bradford. Iâm sure he still lost on the issue, but I think he kept from getting swamped by it.
His prison probation/sentence reform positions got completely misrepresented. Kind of sucks that the sane approach is considered radically progressive.
2 Likes
Say the thing, Wasserman
10 Likes
I ran the math. My ballpark guess is that Sisolak is on track to lose by 1K votes at current rates, with 110K outstanding. Few wild cards:
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Variance
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The Washoe mail ballots are beating projections for us right now on our margins. Can that hold?
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Sisolak is going to need the margins in Clark mail-ins to beat 65-35. First drop was 68-32, I expect our margin to deep on each one. However, this is not 2022. No Trump, most people donât care about COVID. Maybe that pattern doesnât hold. If Clark goes 66-34 itâs a dead heat. Better, Sisolak has edge.
So my take is Sisolak should not start updating his resume. Cortex Masto is a huge favorite now.
3 Likes
Anyone got a seat by seat view of this for the house?
Given the way we run, Trump will kick the bucket in 2023, and allow DeSantis to cruise as his anointed successor.
I doubt it and Iâm not sure the CA boards of elections give updates on how many ballots are left. Would have to base that off how far they moved last year and that wouldnât be a perfect science.
Beyond the schadenfreude - Iâm not sure that âred tsunamiâ and âelevator scene from The Shiningâ are exactly the metaphors these idiots think they are.
5 Likes
Why. Does. California. Take. So. Long. To. Count.
