2022 Midterm Elections (Abandon hope all ye who enter here) butnahhh. or maybe?

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590244060198944768?s=20&t=0esqrQAm0VIlVvcTPUy44A

So that 40% of the vote in our race is wrong. Our county registrar is only showing 26.1%.

It’s updating incredibly slow this cycle and no one is sure why. SD ROV going to get lots
Of complaints

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https://twitter.com/jefftimmer/status/1590240390879539200

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https://twitter.com/snowmanomics/status/1590251063617421312

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https://twitter.com/PSchmaling/status/1590183247505653760

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https://twitter.com/ZackBornstein/status/1590242934326452224

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Hey @Riverman you made a quip about the hopium being cranked to the maximum on hopes that the college kids standing in lines in WI and MI to register would save us. Welp, Governor Whitmer and Governor Evers say hello!

https://twitter.com/AntonioArellano/status/1590203749112639488

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Get fucked, Oz. Fetterman may have slurred his words a bunch, but you still said the dumbest thing in the debate you scummy snake oil salesman. Go back to Jersey, motherfucker!

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1590256292039622656

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Porter/Shapiro ticket 2024

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1590135840810106883

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Now that my buddy went home and I’m drunk off my ass the relief is pouring over me. My county is currently 70/30 for Shapiro. I am not surrounded by people who want to take us back to the fucking 1950’s. Get fucked Mastriano. Get absolutely unequivocally fucked.

Nearby Bucks County, typically a 50-50 county, 58-40 Shapiro. Fuck Donald Trump, fuck Doug Mastriano, and fuck allllll the bigots who want to take away women’s rights and LGBTQ rights and racial equality. Not tonight, motherfuckers! Not ever!

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590259375855521792

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Let me stop you right there.

Am I right in thinking that Georgia goes to a runoff if nobody gets >50%

Yes, and Dems outperformed their general election numbers in the 2020 runoff, plus it’s an extra month for Walker to make an ass of himself on a national stage. Gotta lean towards Warnock if it goes to a runoff.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590260688941092864

Fivethirtyeight summary of current standings is still a bit worrisome re Nevada (gov and senate) and Arizona (gov not senate)

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https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1590258936665735168

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

(And 1845-48 Dems were probably the baddies so this is even fucking more historic.)

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These Arizona numbers look bad on the surface, and I’m pretty drunk, but they’re Election Day returns, and Dems crushed the mail-ins, so my #1 takeaway is that Hobbs is NOT running far behind Kelly. So, either Kelly is fucked or Hobbs is favored to win.

Here’s where I’m going to be lazy because I’m drunk and just defer to the models showing Kelly as a 2-to-1 favorite. Ballparking, Hobbs has to be like 60-40 to win if those models are accurate.