2022 Midterm Elections (Abandon hope all ye who enter here) butnahhh. or maybe?

Lying constantly about everything works! My friends and family who vote Trump always have a perfectly reasonable, yet completely bullshit, reason for supporting everything Trump does.

Support banning abortion? That’s because I’m for states rights.

Don’t want to support Ukraine? That’s because I’m against wasteful spending.

Support banning CRT? It’s not the governments job to teach that.

Support tougher penalties for illegal immigration? We’re a nation of laws.

Against gun control? We need to follow the constitution.

and on and on and on

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Yeah, that does seem off. I’m not buying it.

“Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).”

Looking at the Cook political report, they have 10 CA races as “competitive”, but further breakdown as: 1 likely D, 1 lean D, 2 D toss up, 2 R toss up, 2 lean R and 2 Likely R. It seems like you could get some noisy results depending on whether (or how well) PPIC controlled/weighted their sample to account for the lean Cook was already assigning to the district. In other words, if you sampled 1000 people from those 10 districts, but somehow managed to over sample folks from the likely D or lean D areas, your results would show a greater preference for Ds on the generic ballot. I’d hope the pollster would control for that, but the last few years have decreased my confidence that pollsters know what they’re doing (especially when it comes to drawing conclusions from crosstabs and other small sample sets).

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What’s the next level up from WAAF?

We have entirely paper ballots in Australia and they get counted by hand and we usually have enough counted to have results for stuff the same day. There’s nothing wrong with hand counting. I would be pretty resistant to introducing machines here.

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I remember when ‘unskewing’ the polls was funny.

Sigh. Now I unskew with zeal and vigor. D +5? LOL

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WAAGD

Eta: that might be a level down

WAAWATF

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1585677716061396995?s=20&t=sDjJFjJTKG-DdF6TpffbEw

um this has to be “good” right? I don’t really get it. This can’t be all the we hate brandon crowd right? More than turning out to vote for TFG 2 years ago? :thinking:

We probably only won the runoff because trump said not to vote because it was rigged

I dont fucking get this at all.

Is it just to own the libs? Dude has no policy and is a walking CTE warning.

Yep, they’ve flat out said it’s about controlling the Senate and it doesn’t matter if he’s paid for abortions or anything else that goes against what little policy he has.

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what kind of senate are you controlling if 15% of them are fucking lunatics?

Buddy if only 15% of them are lunatics we should consider ourselves lucky.

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:eyes:

If Walker was a Democrat expected to vote in line with other progressive Democrats, every single member of this forum would smash the button for him if he was running in their state against a generic Republican.

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Sure, but we’d never nominate someone like that in the first place.

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Like Feinstein?

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