I’m super bearish on Democrats senate prospects and even I don’t see a way Republicans can flip 6 seats with this map.
The possibles I see are GA/NV/AZ/NH/CO (and CO is a bit of a stretch). Not sure what could possibly be the sixth.
Does Nate no longer post the other versions of the model?
He doesn’t routinely. I think he highlighted it this time on the chance the Dobbs in particular represents a step change in opinion and the rapid shift is real and not an outlier.
I read it as a preview IF the next set of polls aligns with the July data.
He’s been dropping a little heat recently. Still got the fastball
huh
I thought most folks on this board didn’t care about this, and that if nothing’s gonna get done, why bother with Democrats?
y’all post about the ohio race…Tim Ryan is basically your definition of eDem. Thought you weren’t voting for those anymore. I mean, JD Vance is the exact same, amirite?
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People are just venting a bit
Yes, I am.
I wouldnt vote in the Ohio Senate race. That doesnt mean I think JD Vance and Tim Ryan are the same. I just dont see voting for eDems as worth the effort at this point, and perhaps actively bad if NBZ’s thoughts about the Dem party mindset are correct.
All those people in violent marriages totally agree with you
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I’m gonna be pretty gutted if Tim Ryan loses to that dweeb while maybe an eDem he at least… tries.
The fantasy that people are going to wake up after more Republican control is just that. A fantasy.
Best to limit the damage for now and figure out how to impact the primary process going forward.
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Tim Ryan did challenge Pelosi for the House leadership too. Maybe it was all for show, but at least he makes some noise sometimes.
I would vote for Tim Ryan. He is way better than your typical eDem loser. And senate seats are precious, it’s crazy not to vote in a competitive race.
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Having an eDem in Ohio is fine. Plus as far as eDems go, Tim Ryan seems above median. I’d vote for him if I lived in Ohio.
It’s the shitty eDems in super-safe blue states/districts that piss me off.
I’m not voting for Molly Gray if she wins the primary here, even though that won’t mean anything.
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Not sure if endorsing domestic violence helps or hurts JD, tbh.
I wouldn’t go that far. He’s outspoken and passionate about doing something and I haven’t seen him stymie progress, though I could have missed a vote or something. Just cause he’s more moderate than I’d like doesn’t mean he’s a corporatist. He’d get my general election vote if I lived there.
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