29-29 possible
appreciated Al’s unenthusiastic endorsement of the Ana Gasteyer show
Goddamnit Herbert
Chargers should not be this bad.
#1 Chargers outlives coaches and QBs
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I like how the stats heads are certain enough in their calcs that
39>>>>>>>38%
There have to be a lot of assumptions built in that apply to generic situations and don’t factor in specific personnel, scheme, etc.
Is your team less than, equal to, or better than the league average for the yardage. What about their D? If you turn it over in the redZone how likely are you to give up a TD vs the norm?
Have not looked into the specific of the calcs but I’d need a massive edge (5%) to go for it there just down 3 with that much time left. The downside is huge (prolly at least 50% Oak gets a TD) while you still have to drive 40 more yards to get in FG range.
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Also it was like 1.3 yards and a lot of the bot decisions are quoting 4th and 1.
But stuff like the downside based on field position should be factored into the WP% calculations.
Plus you gotta factor in you are calling a shit play and you and your offensive coordinator should be tasered.
Yeah if you don’t have a good play that should factor into the decision big time.
I have a strong feeling there is both some wild ass assumptions and pure speculation involved in those calcs. Is it a simple algorithm or is it Monte Carlo? What’s the certainty range?
The surest sign that sports analytics bros aren’t really statisticians and are instead just dudes with Excel spreadsheets is when they print point estimates without any measure of variability.
That is a bad spot.
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spot seems awful
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LOL terrible spot.
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Come on
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Clear 1st down
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They won’t reverse of course, because lol refs.
lol yeah instant challenge