Tina Smith is who was appointed to Franken’s seat and rates as having one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate.
While that’s not a good poll, looking at this should make you all feel better.
only polls I see of late are D +11 in MN Senate
Yes, as I keep pointing out we’re vulnerable in Minnesota if the racial shift is stronger than we realize, it’s a very white state.
there were 2 released today, a +11 and a +1
needless to say I’m far more comfortable if there were +5, +5 than that.
We are not vulnerable in MN. I will continue to offer 3:1 to anyone who wants a life-tilt hedge though.
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Hillary won Minnesota by 1.5% and it was our second closest winning state, New Hampshire being the closest. It’s about 85% white, 5% black, 4% Asian.
If you think there’s a chance that our politics are more racially polarized in 2020 than in 2016, it’s very possible that we could lose Minnesota. We could win PA/MI and lose WI/MN if our politics have continued shifting in that direction.
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Counterpoint: Dems were +12 in MN in 2018. Any scenario where MN isn’t blue is one where Trump is winning in a landslide.
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Also the confidence interval on that poll is ±5% so it could easily be a big gap? Seems like a shit poll in general
So is Oregon and Vermont. Its a little more complicated than just racial demographics.
Sure, and I think MN is far more vulnerable than those.
To be clear I’m not saying I expect it to flip. I’m saying in a scenario where the racial polarization is excaserbated, it could flip.
Asking honestly and not to shame you into betting. What % chance do you honestly think MN is going red?
If Minnesota flips, the blame will be set on the George Floyd protests exacerbating that racial polarization and Republicans will adopt a strategy of trying to induce such protests in key states before every election.
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Maybe 15%, I just think it’s possible that it’s closer than Michigan, for example. In scenarios where Trump is in a tight race in MI/WI/PA again, we could get blind sided by MN.
I agree and while that may play a role, I think it’s fair to argue it either way and I think the real reason would be demographics.
Hi I live in MN and there is no chance we’re flipping in a non landslide. Whitey shitlibs like me don’t GAF that some buildings in south MPLS got damaged in May. There’s a zillion BLM/George Floyd stuff everywhere. Its not a thing.
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there aren’t enough whitey shitlibs compared to whitey shitnonlibs in all midwest states is the point being made
I’m not seeing it, at all. Obv I never leave the city/suburbs, but the only way Trump wins here is a massive shift where I’m at. Its not happening.
That’s good, but I’ll be a lot more excited if Harrison gets to 50% somehow before the election. Still a lot of people that could come on home to Linzee, even without thinking about voter suppression.
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