Well yeah, I know that bit. Just had no idea where in florida it actually was situated.
Outside Miami means reliably blue anyway, right?
Getting past 50 is pretty key to have a built in Manchin cushion. Also a Feinstein cushion on SCOTUS and the filibuster. 52 is a good number. 53 Iād feel really good.
IMO itās: AZ, ME, COā¦ Then NC or IAā¦ Then MT, GA, SC.
Paula Jean Swearengin was in Taking Down the House. She is a terrible candidate, but would be a very good senator I think. I base that on her staging some ābig eventsā with like 8 people, her and her campaign doing a bad job setting up the event in terms of presentation, and her difficulty with public speaking. On the other hand sheās extremely progressive and all about the working class.
^KS too, maybe.
Other Senators to fade on eliminating filibuster include Coons and Angus King.
KS is lost now. This Supreme Court opening is going to polarize things. Will likely be bad for Jaime Harrison too/good for Lindsey.
CO/AZ/ME will likely be guaranteed. NC is likely. IA is a coin flip. Montana GA TX and SC are still outside shots but probably 3:1 or worse
is this coming from your friend at Cook or your thinking?
Parkland is north of Ft. Lauderdale, in Broward County. Hillary won Broward in 2016 with 66% of the vote to Trumps 31%. Itās was the bluest county in 2016 outside of Gadsen (66% HRC), but Gadsen only had 22,000 total votes whereas Broward had 832,000.
If itās not a lock blue seat then we can write Florida off for good. One benefit of the opponent dropping, albeit very unlikely, is that it may suppress R votes in the county that were voting for Senate but apathetic about trump.
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Combo. Sheās moving a senate race tomorrow she didnāt tell me which.
Edit:
https://twitter.com/jessicataylor/status/1308382730812522497?s=21
The fact that the Dems managed to clear the field for Biden but canāt get Joe Liebermans failson out in GA is, uhā¦super fucking demoralizing.
Lol, like weāll have an election in 2022
Fucking Liebermans, how are we not done with them yet?
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eh, Russia still has elections.
This is basically what I thought, 2018 redland senators gain a point or two, 2018 blueland other way around.
surely NC/AZ/CO are more important than KS/SC/GA
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The graph implies that Collins is almost assured of losing ME?
itās based on polling as of 9/21. itās not meant to be static, itās a snapshot. Currently, Collins is down a lot to Gideon.
Right. Senate dollars help Biden too. So all else being equal, you get more bang for the buck by spending in the tipping point states for the Pres election. Seems to me that even if the media market is more expensive, donating to Cunningham in NC is still a better play than Harrison in SC.
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