I’m still not seeing how Harrison is going to outrun Biden by 10 points or whatever.
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I don’t remember if I’ve posted it here yet, but I think that if Dems played their cards right here they could get a decent number of South Carolina Republicans to either undervote POTUS, undervote Senate, or a mix of both.
Just run ads via a Super PAC with the old Graham soundbytes attacking Trump and vice versa, and try to drive a wedge between the two of them. Essentially your message is that you can be a Trump Republican or a Graham Republican, but you can’t be both.
You’ve got a decent chance of Trump ripping into Graham anew, having been reminded of the “kook” comments. This is magnified if Trump is polling poorly still and in a continuous state of rage.
If you want to go there, run some Lady G ads last minute too. You might get a chunk of Trump voters to just skip the Senate race.
The last five presidential polls of SC are between Trump +4 and Trump +7. So you need to do ~6 points better than the presidential race to have a shot. Maybe you can get a 50-45 Trump win and a 46.x to 46.x Harrison win or something like that.
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I have to think rural whites, to the extent they know who Graham is, hate him.
It’s pretty normal for the minority party to do worse in the Presidential contest. IL elected a R governor, MT elected a D Senator.
I hope people appreciate how much time I put into polling all those people.
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Imagine being incapable of making a point about Pete Buttigieg’s bad political positions without making a homophobic slur.
Continued homophobic posts should warrant a ban.
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Think it’s more of a childish insult than a homophobic slur imo
A fair number of them will hate his opponent too, just by looking at him.
FiveThirtyEight Senate model, let’s goooo.
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A Super Pac Need to play this ad nonstop
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Loeffler is ahead?! When did that happen?
Holy fuck is that a good ad. Utterly devastating. But also a genuinely positive ad for Biden. That’s probably a top 5 political ad of all time for me. It’s a huge pity that its value drops outside SC. I don’t know what Lady G’s name recognition is, but I suspect most of the voters who are actually in play have no idea who he is.
EDIT: Actually it might be a breaking point for some hard core politically active christian types. I just have doubts that the hard core informed are demographically important to any race anywhere.
Of course the value drops outside of SC. Mostt of its value lies in making Trumpers sit out the Senate election.
Eh I think it clobbers the Christians pretty hard. The more times I watch it the more I think that if that was your senator for basically your whole life and you were the pastor of a mid sized church in SC you might get your head turned. And those pastors basically own their congregants votes. Giving migrants hysterectomies is a hard thing to get by. So is all the fornicating, cursing, and lying. I’ve known a lot of clergy in my life and many of them are true believers in their religion. It’s why abortion was a straight up hack for the right wingers. Very hard to balance anything vs a million babies murdered a year or whatever.
The Democrats should have attacked abortion bad on straight up theological grounds. I’m serious here. That argument really hasn’t been had that I’ve seen, and the GOP has transparently used that one thing to force the Christians to support a platform that is pretty fucking unchristian.
Trending in the wrong direction though. Forecast was 51D/49R two weeks ago 
I’m too lazy, what’s the TLDR on Nate’s forecast in regards to 50/50 tie?
took a look at 538’s forecast on the senate
Gardner 32%
Jones 28%
would certainly bet against either at those odds. Both gonna flip. (biden outperforms hickenlooper but man it’s still like 8 points or something Dem for this race)
when it got out of the news, her polling turned hard upward. She’s now a favorite to retain that seat, shit changes fast in politics.
Also helps that Joe Lieberman’s kid is wasting 13ish% of votes so it might be a R/R special election.
They use the Presidential model to forecast who will win the Presidency for each 50/50 Senate sim. Biden probably wins a majority of those sims, so they count a majority of 50/50 ties in the “Dems control the Senate” column.
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