Iād buy this logic if she had at least some experience in actually winning something (like Jon Tester or Joe Manchin).
She ran for Congress and did marginally better than the Cook PVI in a āwaveā election. GTFO.
I still donāt get what this means because that is not a voting block McGrath is siphoning votes from. That is pure fantasy. The current Kentucky AG is an African-American male that won his 2019 race 58 / 42 over a white male former Kentucky AG and Speaker of the House whoās a huge name in Kentucky politics in the same election the GOP governor was ousted.
but
Darwin Vice, a 59-year old Libertyville resident and poll respondent, said he plans to vote for both Ernst and the president in the fall. Heās particularly concerned about rising health care costs associated with the Affordable Care Act and the influence of money and corporations on politicians.
āI just want them to do what they say theyāre going to do,ā Vice said of elected leaders. āIām tired of all these years of being lied to.ā
He said he couldnāt see himself voting for a Democrat, because he hasnāt seen them condemn the violence associated with protests after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Floyd, a Black man, died after a white police officer knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes.
LOL PEOPLE IN THE MIDWEST
Iām going to blame you for giving me hope.
Good post.
Donāt get too much hope because I think theyāre both drawing razor thin. The AG Iām talking about (Daniel Cameron) is obviously a GOP game piece hand-picked by McConnell. The point is that electoral politics isnāt as simple as racist ā never vote for black candidate. I guarantee you a ton of racists voted for Cameron, and if he ran against McGrath for Senate I think heād win by 20 points. Racists will vote for āthe right kindā of people of color to own the libtards. They even think that makes them not racist! What they really seem to want to vote for is racist policy.
The interesting part is that the GOP ticket crushed down-ballots by 15-20 points across the board, but the white incumbent GOP governor was shitcanned. Think about how crazy that is for a second. It wasnāt voters not showing up. It was voters making the effort to take straight GOP candidates except for the top of the ticket where they either voted for no one or his Dem opponent in an odd-year election to boot. Probably one of the weirdest contests in recent memory.
Sheās ahead by 1 point in a single poll that also had 19 undecided. Sheās not gonna win lol
Serious question: what percentage of Republicans knew they were voting for a black guy? What percentage just went down checking boxes and saw āDaniel Cameron (R)ā and checked the box, assuming it was another run of the mill Kentucky Republican?
This is true, but when itās a red state and the black candidate is extremely progressiveā¦
I doubt anyone knows an exact number but itās significantly higher than zero. Remember, he beat some white dude in the GOP primary too so the voters werenāt checking the garden-variety Republican box in that race.
This is like the Kentucky version of looking at national polls to infer who might win the general election. Iām asking you to tell me where the extra McGrath votes are coming from. Like give me some voting sub-blocks that are going McGrath but not Booker that translates into 15% difference in equity.
Daniel Cameron ads were run a TON around here. One thing also to note, AG was the one race that actually was historically won by democrats. Hey vote Rep for senate, and Dem for AG. Hey Iām bipartisan
Yeah its crazy but Daniel Cameron is the first Rep AG KY has had since 1948. But largely it is because Cameron is Moscowās handpicked successor when the time finally comes.
Centrist voters? People who dislike McConnell and also dislike socialism? The hypothesis that people will turn out for a candidate with a bold progressive vision and not turn out for bland conservative Dems has now been disproven repeatedly. It was disproven in the 2018 general election and in the Democratic Presidential primary. McGrath in particular seems terrible even among conservative Dems, but itās the South. Iām not even talking about racism. Iām talking about where the overton window is.
Also why Amy is going to win. In a group text chat with my D boomer mom and her two 2 D brothers
uncle 1
āwife & I both voted for Amy. She is the only one with enough financial backing to match Mitch. Also I donāt want her to look weak in the primary by not receiving an overwhelming vote. I would like to see an 80-90% of the total. Just my opinionā
mom
āTotally agree and I voted for her for all the same reasons but less enthusiastically than beforeā
(we both volunteered for her congress race)
uncle 2
āI just cannot get past her attempt to identify with Trump. Voting for Booker but will strongly support her against McConnell, including making a financial contributionā
Well at least uncle 2 was right. Voted Booker. Ultimately I just donāt see how McGrath loses to Barr then beats Moscow. Booker is a long shot, but at least its a shot.
One way that McConnell loses is if the election is framed as a referendum on him and enough voters vote against him. Arguably, in that scenario, it sort of doesnāt matter who runs against Mitch, so long as they donāt draw too much attention away from his shortcomings. Barr may have been too much of a generic Republican in too conservative of a district for any Democrat to beat him in the absence of a scandal, so I can see a path for McGrath losing to Barr but beating McConnell.
Ideology might not matter so much as having the right personality to provoke McConnell into making some sort of unforced error or having just the right background to highlight a scandal or issue that has not yet come to light.
People who will vote for a Democrat but not a black āsocialistā Democrat. People who want cheap/free healthcare, but think a black person will just want to give Obamaphones to āpeople who donāt deserve it.ā (AKA people of color.) Otherwise politically moderate racists. Dixiecrats.
Also I think itās important to note that itās not just about turning out different groups and winning over different groups, itās also about suppressing enthusiasm on the other side. Itās a lot easier to rile racist Republicans up to vote against the black socialist Bernie/AOC clone than the fighter pilot lady who owns guns.
Example?
I disagree. I think a lot of people are scared of the s-word and Warren fumbled in the red zone.
A bunch of the House flips in 2018 were moderate or conservative Dems. Abigail Spanberger, who pulled off an enormous upset against Dave Brat, was literally a CIA operative. Hereās a link that argues that Election Day 2018 was a ābad nightā for progressives as far as flipping seats.
I would say ābad nightā is too far (Katie Porter looked like she would lose when this was written), but certainly not great. Some moderates had avoidable losses too, so the results were mixed, but my point isnāt that conservative Dems are great, we should always run them everywhere.
Itās that if we just took the two most recent data points of the midterms, where the red seat flips were mostly down to candidates more conservative than the median Dem house member, and the Democratic primary, where Biden destroyed Bernie in the South (yes, different electorates, but itās relevant), and then used these to try to divine which candidate has the better chance of beating McConnell, we would have to conclude itās McGrath.
Now I happen to think her ābetter chanceā is about 1%, so Iād still be happy if she lost to Bookerās 0%, just to send a message to conservative Dems, but Iām making a narrow argument against the idea that bold progressive vision must always be more appealing to voters than bland centrism.
IA trending toward tossup
MT is a true tossup trending toward lean D
CO trending back towards tossup bc LOL Hickenlooper
Wat for Colorado. Wasnāt Hickenlooper a fairly popular governor? Fivethirtyeight has only two polls, both from early May, but they both show Hickenlooper crushing Gardner, +17.
Isnāt Hickenlooper also in the midst of a corruption scandal?
He had some pretty minor gifts and entertainment violations. Not acceptable, but also not really damning. It kind if goes to the heart of the matter of American corruption that Hicky taking a private plane trip as a gift is damaging to his election chances and Republicans openly making multimillion dollar personal trades with nonpublic information is ho hum business as usual nothing to see here.
Barack HUSSEIN Obama aka the Black Socialist Anti-Christ received significantly more votes than Hillary twice in Kentucky on nearly identical absolute turnout (and relative turnout in 2012). In 2008 he beat Kerryās 2004 result with nearly identical absolute and relative turnout and matched Al Goreās 2000 vote% on same relative turnout.