2020 Post-Election Thread

[suzzer99]

Here’s my list of things in 2020, w/o which Trump probably wins re-election:

1. BLM/Floyd protests
2. Covid
3. Trump’s 1st debate performance
4. No second stimulus
5. Kamala
6. MSM refusing to bite on Hunter laptop (maybe)

[Chuckleslovakian]

2 and 4 are 100 fucking percent. Rest are decent chances though.

[ChrisV]

I don’t even think anything is 100%, who knows. COVID/stimulus definitely 1/2 most important tho. Hunter laptop might have mattered. The rest is irrelevant. I have absolutely no idea what Kamala is doing on the list, can’t even guess at why you put her on there.

[Chuckleslovakian]

Well of course 100% isn’t literally 100%, but close enough. But I wouldn’t take my chances at running this election again if there was another round of Trump bucks before the election, or not covid period.

One thing about Hunter’s laptop. I mean I ran a poll here, and this is a clearly very political engaged forum. Could you solidly identify Hunter Biden out of a lineup, and it was 60% no.

[RiskyFlush]

You forgot

7. Mary Jane

[StimAbuser]

I’m not convinced a stimulus deal would have helped Trump. I don’t think it would have changed any votes and I think Nancy should have taken the 1.8 trillion deal.

I think the senate and house elections show that a lot of people blamed democrats for no stimulus, polls showed the same thing. If Nancy had reached a stimulus deal, at the very least it would have been a wedge issue for Senators. I’m sure the vulnerable Republican senators would not have been happy about having to vote on it because a lot of their supporters did not want a deal.

[zimmer4141]

Yeah I think a stimulus could have actually been a win for Democrats. It was close enough to the election to provide a boost to people looking for Democrats in the house to “do something” but not long enough of a lag time to make people materially better off, which causes them to subconsciously support the incumbent.

[simplicitus]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325584030386020352?s=19

[ViridianDreams]

I got a taste of this first hand this year. The Florida Democratic Party is a fucking mess.

[ViridianDreams]

Holy shit, the two Florida seats we lost weren’t in conservative districts! These fucking people.

[mosdef]

I think if Joe wants to be remembered as the great unifier he has to first unify the Dems. It seems crazy to try to build bridges with Kasich before, say Bernie.

[StimAbuser]

I have a post with the breakdown, but a couple moderates even lost in D +5 and +6 districts while M4A supporters won in R+1 to R+3. Fucking insanity. We keep the same leadership we’re losing the house, I’m telling you.

Its not even an ideology thing though, some people can’t run on M4A, but its a competency thing. The people who support M4A are also just running way better campaigns, and have younger and more talented people in their campaigns who know how to use digital. With the threat of Trump, climate change, to fail this badly is insanity. I have no doubt the senate campaigns were just as bad we just don’t have an AOC there to call them out.

[6ix]

@PocketChads

@ChrisV

I agree you shouldn’t campaign on M4A etc there,

Yeah don’t run on something that about half of GOP voters want but neither party will offer. Instead keep trying to find something that all GOP voters can agree on. Just be GOP lite instead of targeting people who want something badly enough they might switch parties over it.

Of course there are other populist economic policies that would work better here but whatever even the one you chose to highlight has no actual analysis behind why it won’t work and instead just relies on gut level conventional wisdom that’s been pounded into your head by all the pundits.

@PocketChads

@ChrisV

@skydiver8

we’re back to messaging now.

The trouble in places like mine with “M4A” is that people see that, think “Bernie Sanders/AOC” then they think “socialism!” and we’re lost. It doesn’t matter how stupid we think that is, it is what happens.

Instead of which, your guy backpedalled on M4A and the Green New Deal, and then they simply ran an ad where Trump called him a far-left socialist and then you lost. I don’t think the problem there is Dem messaging, the problem is that it’s a Republican district.

I don’t think you actually have an answer to the assertion that running a campaign where you get called a communist, but offer no populist economic reform, will always get worse results than when you run a campaign where you get called a communist but do offer populist economic reform. And the assertion that you will be called a communist no matter what you do.

I’m almost positive that you’re almost totally misreading his posts.

p.s.

[StimAbuser]

With Trump out I can honestly say if they continue this fucking march forward I’m 100% done supporting them. I’ll vote for progressives in primaries etc and working to help them but I will be done supporting the establishment, and I’m sure this will go for a ton of progressives now that Trump is gone. I was one of the more bullish people on doing it because how bad Trump/Republicans are, but it will absolutely be time to burn it all down if they continue to be the washington generals.

I mean Bernie got crushed sure, but he still got a very significant portion of the vote both times, Warren got a lot of votes too, their positions are super popular even across party lines. it’s clear the progressives are a significant portion of the party and its clear they can’t afford to lose those votes.

Before the election I was saying Biden was probably the right choice because I thought we would crush, but after this performance I don’t think so anymore.

All that said these establishment fucks like Nancy worth like 100 million would rather Republicans be in control than progressives so my hopes aren’t high.

[mosdef]

@StimAbuser

it’s clear the progressives are a significant portion of the party and its clear they can’t afford to lose those votes

I agree but progressives haven’t yet cracked the self assurance that moderates have that the progressives will always show up for them no matter how far right they move, because they’ll always hate Republicans more.

[StimAbuser]

Well they can fuck around and find out I guess. The real problem is many of them probably won’t care and it’s better than moving left ( those in power, not those voting ). If thats the case we will need to let the country burn to the ground, hopefully still be a democracy because no Trump, and rebuild.

If they do care about the country and democratic politics they will see the writing on the wall. Like they knew Trump would unify us, but with Trump gone there is no boogyman to get us to vote. You idiots are going to get wrecked by Mitch anyways so that won’t work either.

[boredsocial]

Who cares if we won ca by double digits?

[StimAbuser]

Yeah it doesn’t matter at all until we get full control while we have people with intelligence and courage and lift the cap on the house. Then when CA has 200+ EV votes it will matter.

[6ix]

@boredsocial

But here’s the thing, those issues all do great with the poor whites in the sample.

@PocketChads

The point is that a large amount of support for these policies exists within demographics where conventional wisdom says support is zero.

And they know which party comes much closer, though not nearly close enough, to offering those policies. They’re not idiots, they’re Strasserite Nazis.

[boredsocial]

They most certainly do not know that. In fact they live in a propaganda fishbowl, which because our side is totally incompetent we never do shit to counter.

We can’t not get these people now. There was a path still open a week ago where we potentially didn’t need them because we could just turn out everyone else. We did that and it still wasn’t enough. Now we have to do it the hard way.