That’s not “my conclusion,” that’s copied directly from the pole: SurveyUSA Election Poll #25729
***** White voters give Perdue a 43-point lead and give Loeffler a 37-point lead.
***** Black voters give Ossoff an 87 point advantage and give Warnock (who is black) an 83-point advantage.
***** Perdue holds 96% of the GOP base, Loeffler holds 92%.
***** Ossoff holds 94% of the Democratic base, Warnock holds 97%.
***** Independents split in both contests.
***** Moderates break 3:2 for Ossoff and 2:1 for Warnock.
***** Men give Perdue a 10-point edge; men give Loeffler a 9-point edge.
***** Women give Ossoff an 11-point advantage; women give Warnock a 19-point advantage.
***** Voters younger than age 50 break 5:4 Democrat in both contests.
***** But voters age 50+ like Perdue, while voters age 50+ are less convinced about Loeffler, where the contest is effectively tied.
***** Of Perdue runoff voters, 90% stay with Loeffler, 10% are vulnerable.
***** Of Ossoff runoff voters, 97% vote for Warnock, just 3% are vulnerable.
***** Of those who voted for Trump in the November general election, 97% vote for Perdue, 94% vote for Loeffler.
***** Voters with a 4-year college degree are split in both contests.
***** But voters with a high-school education give Perdue more backing than they give Loeffler.
***** Greater Atlanta votes the same way in both contests: a 4-touchdown Democratic edge.
***** Northwestern GA votes the same way in both contests: a 2-touchdown GOP edge.
***** The contest is in play in Southern and Coastal GA, where Perdue leads by 2 touchdowns but Loeffler hangs on by a field goal.
***** Rural GA backs Perdue by 39 points. Rural GA backs Loeffler by 26 points.
***** Suburban women back Ossoff by 23 points and back Warnock by 30 points.
Wait we are really gonna do the poles thing again?
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@NateSilver538 , where’s your model for the Georgia races based upon these stellar and hyper-accurate poles?
I was intending to do them ironically.
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I think ossof will lose and warnock will win, and then goofyballer will post links from oann and right wing watch where a bunch of trumpists explain this is proof warnock won because he’s black.
The range of outcomes where it’s a split decision is probably pretty narrow though. A lot of these supposed ticket splitters probably come home to one party or the other by the time they get into the voting booth.
Jman, I think it’s possible because:1.) I think it’s very close. 2.) sexism
It’s definitely possible. Just probably narrow. I think most of these people come home to the republicans in the end.
Your conclusion is that those two data points are actually meaningful different, and I’d be surprised if it was
fluff
December 5, 2020, 6:27am
9826
When Trump said we would get tired of winning, I never imagined it would actually come true…
Trump is batting .021 in court. He can’t see the Mendoza line with the Hubble telescope.
Devil
December 5, 2020, 6:58am
9829
I don’t care what anybody says, I’m still going to like poll memes.
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I think this new pollster is really onto something with their methodology.
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I can’t tell who’s leveling who. You saw the pollster I cited, right?
Devil
December 5, 2020, 7:17am
9833
Yes, sorry. I’ll stop trying to make stupid jokes now and go make some hot chocolate.
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What’s stupider than a stupid joke? Me cause I didn’t get it lol…
Enjoy! I don’t usually drink hot chocolate much, but this year I decided what the hell. Might as well try to be festive in some way, and remember childhood. Way back when it used to snow around here, like before we boiled the seas.
Devil
December 5, 2020, 7:30am
9836
I just wanted to lower my coffee intake so I stocked up on Swiss Miss at Costco. And then I read those posts on chocolate and slavery in the LC thread. Everything is spoiled.
I haven’t seen those, I usually don’t read much in the LC thread. Sounds like something that’s going to make me sad and angry.
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