2020 Election Thread 2: 41 DAYS OF TREASON

Politics & News
8456

Bad assumption. He can turn out new voters who stayed home in 2020 even if he flips 0 Trump voters. Let’s also not assume Trump’s 70M automatically turn out in 2024 either.

Agreed. He may not be perceived as a dangerous socialist after four years of doing nothing. He may not be perceived as the end of oil in Texas after doing nothing.

Then nobody should ever read any thread on here and everyone is shouting into the void because nobody is paying any attention to anyone else.

Uh, no, you did it wrong again. You don’t take the three closest states. He could win 400 EV and you could just pick three close states.

He won 306 electoral votes, for what you’re doing you sort by closest and work backwards and you count the ones that got him to 270 not the ones that got him to 306, 290, etc.

If WI is the tipping point, then it’s WI and the next couple increasing margins. Not decreasing. AZ and GA padded the lead, they didn’t get us to 270.

Find me a receipt where I said 100K-200K. That was the dude from the PA Dems, and at the same time I posted it, I said 75-150K. Might have been a separate post a minute later but I’m pretty sure I didn’t say 100K-200K because his range actually made me adjust mine upward.

Well duh, I’m known as the freak out guy. That I was calm about this is a pretty big W for me relative to my reputation.

No one is arguing that. The three closest must wins for Biden did not include AZ and GA, that’s the argument we’re having. Also WI’s vote margin is close but the level of certainty on election night in WI was high because:

  1. The outstanding vote in Milwaukee always covered the deficit.

  2. They were done counting and called it by like 3:30 or 4:00 am EST.

So to try to play “gotcha” on my election night takes because Wisconsin’s final margin was close completely ignores the reality of what we knew 11/3 into 11/4.

Luckily for you, Keeed, nobody here finds you insufferable at all.

Lol

A) It wasn’t GUESSING, it was a math problem.

B) We didn’t need AZ and GA to win. I can screenshot a map if it would help, a lot of people seem to be confused.

C) The level of certainty in Wisconsin was high relatively early for reasons I’ve already stated, despite the close final margin.

8457

I think I disagree with this.

If it had come down to one state, I’m not confident Biden wins.

8458

Yeah, that’s the joke. Basically, there’s low, medium, and high. In law bro speak, that maps to “rational basis” (you can articulate SOME logical reason for the rule), “intermediate” (you need to have a good reason for the rule) and “strict scrutiny” (you better have a damn good reason for the rule).

I suppose Giuliani was using normal either to mean rational basis (as a default in the absence of a reason to apply a higher level), or in a colloquial sense (like, hey, just review this the normal way, y’know, do that judging thing y’all do) but I’ve literally never heard it used in that sense, particularly in response to a question from the court where they were clearly using terms of art.

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8459

Or Giuliani has no idea what any of those words mean.

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8460

It may not, I mean it’s a big open question but everyone here is assuming the worst. The GOP has problems too.

2008/12: Reckoning for the GOP
2016: Reckoning for Dems
2020: Reckoning for all

Trump took the GOP coalition from 2012 that was in trouble and basically got college educated white voters to fuck off, and hurt them a ton with suburban white women. In return he got a bunch of non-college educated white men who never vote to come out in droves for the cult.

If he’s not on the ballot, do they still come out? Do the suburban white women go back? The college educated white voters?

There’s a decent chance his cult stays home if he’s not on the ballot, but that we hold some of the rest. That’s a curb stomping for us.

Even if everything resets (it won’t) that’s a win for us. The reason I bring this up even though it won’t happen is to hit on the point that the pre-Trump alignment was dooming the GOP.

The GOP needs to either hold the Trump base turnout high or get back everything from before and do better with Hispanics. Both are difficult.

The Dems need to hold onto minority voters, get some Hispanic voters back, and keep turnout high across the board. That’s all difficult.

Neither party is loving life right now electorally. The GOP has huge built in advantages, hence they have the better of it right now looking ahead. But it’s not 90/10 in their favor.

This is a huge problem. They may lose mine as well. Or I may vote Dem Senate and third party down ballot. I’m really pissed at the establishment and if they remain this incompetent, their victory may be irrelevant.

This is quite possible, and a sensible possibility in a hyper-polarized climate.

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8461

Yeah, I mean they literally teach you what these terms mean in your first semester of law school (I still remember the tests for each), but Rudy is not and never has been a constitutional lawyer, and god knows what his booze-soaked brain recalls 20+ years out of practice.

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8462

Maybe, but you’re talking coup not election. Also AZ was called early on election night by Fox News and the AP, so we all viewed that as a huge insurance policy already. Maybe their call was wrong or maybe they ran bad and held, either way given the AP’s track record, it was reasonable to trust them.

8463

Also regarding it coming down to one state, the margin would matter a lot. PA and MI are way out of stealing range. PA had the easiest path with the 11/3 to 11/6 ballots, and we didn’t need them.

I haven’t seen an explanation of any method for the courts stealing WI, it was a fairly quick and accurate count by all reporting. Maybe some election board or legislature shenanigans, but they can do that now anyway and they aren’t.

8464

lolz

8466

Like if it came down to one state maybe the Wyane county people don’t back down? If it comes down to one state there are a ton of shenanigans like that that would be on the table.

The fact it would take a bunch of states doing it is keeping people in check imo.

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8467

You’re taking me out of context. There are two ways of looking at this.

  1. On election night, we did not need WI because AZ was called already and offset it (11 electoral votes in AZ vs 10 in WI). Also WI ended up being close but the result was not in much doubt for very long because math.

  2. Looking backwards in a tipping point context to make arguments about how close the election was overall, we did not need AZ and GA.

You’re conflating my arguments in two different contexts to make me look bad so lolz right back at you.

8468

Yeah, these are basically my thoughts spelled out more explicitly.

The three state margin is absolutely crucial to prevent complete chaos.

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8469

I agree to an extent, but I also feel like we’re discussing a few different things right now.

Once Arizona was called, the math was clear that we were very heavy favorites on WI/MI/PA and in contention in NC/GA, then a bit later it was clear we were a lock in WI and still well over 90% in MI/PA and in the mix in NC/GA. Then WI got called, and we were basically a lock in MI and PA and flipping in GA.

So there wasn’t a big amount of time where we appeared headed for a ~270 EV squeaker. For maybe an hour I had it at 65/35 that we’d win overall and got pretty nervous. Once AZ was called, we stayed on cruise control from there.

Once AZ was called, I think we stayed above 90% to get 290 electoral votes the whole way.

Now we could also discuss the call of AZ, but I think it was reasonable to trust the AP and without knowing what they knew in the room we don’t know whether they fucked up and got lucky or whether they had a strong read on the outstanding vote and ran a couple standard deviations out and held.

8471

I feel like they’re velociraptors testing the fences.

Or they held some votes back in case Dems magically found votes.

The whole shenanigans with the busted water pipe makes me wonder if both sides think the other is cheating - so they hold back votes so the other side doesn’t know how much to cheat.

Subscribe to my substack for more thoughts like this.

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8472

No way people in power in the GOP actually think dems got the balls to cheat, especially in states they control. They know dems are weak cowards.

8473

I disagree, I think they totally think black Dems in big cities stuff the ballot box. Their racism runs deep.

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8474

Eventually you get Rs like Trump in power who are so stupid they actually believe the derp.

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8475

They unequivocally got lucky. They had no idea how many ballots were even outstanding when they called it. Their analysis was “Maricopia ballots already in are blue and absentee ballots skew blue,” most of the outstanding ballots are in Maricopia, ergo no way Trump wins.

Turns out absentee ballots returned in person on Election Day, which were most of the outstanding ballots, skew Red, which is not shocking when you think about it.

Maricopia was R+2.8 in 2016 and ended up D+2 in 2020, just enough to hang-on. The data to predict that on election night simply didn’t exist. And the “work” they showed made no attempt to do so, was Mickey Mouse stuff:

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8476

I mean on election night almost none of what we heard about the ballots outstanding ended up being true. The various news site trackers that showed how much was left ended up being totally worthless.

8477

That 150,000 number was simply wrong too, ended up being well over 200k if I recall correctly.