2020 Election Thread 2: 41 DAYS OF TREASON

I mean you can be both, I am. I admit I have no idea where the next 2-4 years will take us, but also WAAF because 6-3 supreme court, massive built in advantages for the GOP, and the fact that we’re being led by the washington generals who don’t seem to be learning from their mistakes.

All those things are set in stone, so even with everything else being up in the air, we’re starting at a huge disadvantage. But again, who the fuck knows. We might run good and Trump blows up the GOP after finally being forced out, or his base abandons the GOP. But I expect the GOP to play it well because they aren’t the washington generals and hold on to most of them.

You still need the right demagogue at the presidential level. And part of that appeal is being against the GOPe. So they have an ongoing issue.

I agree the GOP is much more of a wildcard. I just think Biden will have a lot of advantages.

I also think some of the Hispanic vote that swung to Trump as the incumbent could swing back to Biden. One pollster said incumbents seem to have an outsized advantage with some rural Hispanics. It kind of makes sense if they’re in more of a state that the electorate was 20 years ago.

But the biggest reason by far to me is that Hispanics not as permanently capturable/easily terrified by racism as whites. Rs will always have to work their asses off to bring non-whites (except Cuban-Americans apparently) into the fold. Look how bad Rs have fallen with Muslims and Asians - where they used to be at least respectable if not have a slight edge. I feel like the spell only works on non-college whites. Everyone else tends to jump ship and lean Dem as they move from low-info to higher-info politically - at least in this crazy age.

No, the point is that no one was paying attention to how you were reacting. They were watching the election and reacting. Thinking how you are reacting ought to have any influence on how everyone else is reacting is astoundingly self-centered.

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Actuarial tables have Biden dying in the next four years at 20%, so there’s that.

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If you’re healthy and have enough wherewithal to run for president at 77, the real #s for dying in the next 4 years go way way down. Look at fucking Congress - blowing away the actuarial tables since forever. Covid doesn’t even knock them off.

On the flip side you have my alcoholic uncle telling me he’s 68, it’s time to go.

It’s like Tucker Carlson fucked Draco Malfoy

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Uh, that’s what we did. WI is going to be closer than MI, NV, PA. WI is going to be the tipping point state. AZ and GA are tighter than WI.

What I want to know is when your 100k-200k range shifted to 75k-150k, Mr. I threw my shoulder out patting myself on the back.

Wait, so Trump gets to cherry pick the counties that get recounted in WI? Isn’t that exact thing what Bush v. Gore said was an equal protection violation?

Also I’d rather lose a " 5% " edge than have joe biden at 82 as our nominee lol.

Source? That sounds insane.

Oh I was paying attention.

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https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1329131949332500480?s=21

Yeah even in the days after Cuse confidence was soothing. Like why are you so mad about his back patting? It doesn’t hurt anyone, and it makes him feel good. Let him take a victory lap and stop being such a salty asshole.

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Continually talking about how calm you are comes across like Trump always saying how non-racist he is.

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Oh you made it sound like a done deal. Lets see if it gets through, I mean they’re like 1-25. I feel like the courts are taking this moment to pretend to seem legit and be political since they know there is zero chance of a flip anyways.

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Actuarial tables definitely don’t account for either the stress levels, assassination attempts, or health care access of Presidents.

lol he wants Diet Recount because Regular Flavor Recount is too expensive

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Me? I’m on team Cuse! I think he is incorrect about one small issue namely that the three closest states, that would flip the election were closer in 2020 than in 2016.

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Yep

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6664/What-will-be-the-‘tipping-point’-jurisdiction-in-2020

We won the tipping point state by 20k votes. The arguments in the last 500 posts are based on a false premise that Pennsylvania was the tipping point state.

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Look, I’m not mad. I’m perfectly calm. Perfectly calm. Through this whole thread I have been the calmest poster reacting to cuse’s incessant back patting.

It’s very important that you recognize and comment on how calm I am.

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