It’s not a lock or anything, but I’m not high on Belgium or Croatia.
The lineup Belgium ran out last break was legit bad. Their defense is old and slow, their CBs were finished and moved on by English teams two years ago. Their full backs don’t naturally play that position.
De Bruyne is a top ~10, maybe 5 player in the world but the rest is overrated right now.
Croatia just has no pace and is one of the oldest teams in the tournament, feel the heat might catch up with them. Add to that they dont have a credible goal scorer. Most games will be slow and the unders will be what you should be taking.
Canada are just a front running team. If they can score first in these matches they can win against those teams. They have a tough time coming from behind because they play better on the break and can’t break down deep lying defenses.
Canada is underrated. They are a fragile team though and it could all go completely wrong. By fragile I mean they have a big drop off in quality if a player or two picks up a knock. Also, unless something changed their CBs blow. They have more attacking options than you think though.
Their CBs are God awful on paper, but that’s why they usually play 3 of them to compensate and Herdmann has done a very good job of not making them exposed tactically.
Of course the challenges you face vs Croatia/Belgium are much bigger than say, Costa Rica and Honduras.
As I edited into the last post, Canada are a good team when up or tied. They are in real trouble when pushing because they’re behind. They don’t have any good CAMs and pushing forward exposes their CBs.
Oh and Canada also isn’t as good as @Aofrantic says, although he gets some credit for being right about arsenal this year so far. Still get to say something about 0 trophies since 2000 though or something right? Pretty sure that’s how it works ;)
I’m not saying Canada are good, they’re well coached and have a CM who is in great form for Porto, the best or second best LB in Europe playing LW and a top 15 ST.
Coaching matters, Spain and Italy had the only two legit coaches in the Euros and they were the two best teams.
Italy then failed to qualify and Spain has no one in the roster good at scoring, but I’m still high on them this tournament.
Serbia and Uruguay will be fun dark horses because of their strikers. Vlahovic and Mitrovic are two brutes and Nunez/Suarez might never pass the ball to each other.
I’m seeing Canada to advance at 3.75 and will probably bet it, but its a homer pick at that price. 4 or 4.5 would be value.
England should be a top 3 favorite but has just all the bad vibes rn.
They have a top 3 attack with France/Brazil but play 5 defenders and took I believe 9. Harry Maguire is now only known for memes of being awful but is a lock starter.
There is a chance Saka or Bellingham come out of this tournament as the best u21 player in world football though. Musiala is another breakout kid to look out for with Germany. Pedri, Leao and Vinicius are also amazing young players I wish I could watch more but I dont watch enough La Liga these days and Serie A beyond Napoli is kind of boring.
