Who will run in 2020?

I understand some of this, but there’s definitely some absolute b******* in here.

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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1194715451630247936

I tend to agree alough my limited knowledge of Turkey etc would limit me to say just what.
I like reading your takes on it Micro as I trust yourself more than any news source.

:) thanks. Cenk has had a bit of a problem giving up the remnants of Turkish patriotism. It’s understandable, but he’s got to get over it.

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See… I was trying to say this…:ok_hand::joy::v:

LOL. At least Chasten survived the staff cuts. :joy:

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Four years of GOP calling him “Devil” Patrick might be worth it

That article is fucking ruthless. I laughed super super hard. Jesus I’m going to be really sad when the Onion closes because nobody has figured out how to make money off comedy on the internet.

Don’t sleep on Deval Patrick, I think he’s got a shot. I’m not saying I support him, I’m just saying he’s got a shot at scooping up a lot of the Biden support as Biden plummets. Supposedly the Obamas and their team were really pushing him hard to run like a year ago. So he’s going to be well-funded and likely have some very talented people around him.

It really just depends on the timing of Biden’s political demise.

They’ve been around for over 30 years and online for most of them. If they tank now it will be due to mismanagement, not because they couldn’t figure out how to make their shtick work.

Since we’re on the subject of the Onion making money:

Report: We Don’t Make Any Money If You Don’t Click The Fucking Link

Informing readers that it was one of the sole means for a digital publication to generate revenue, a report released Thursday indicated that The Onion doesn’t make any money if you don’t click the fucking link. “According to our findings, The Onion doesn’t receive a single goddamn cent unless you dipshits out there on social media move your cursor over to the link and visit the goddamn website,” the report read in part, explaining that “liking” or commenting on a post contributes jackshit to our bottom line and, indeed, has zero impact on the web traffic analytics that help our publication sell the advertisements that allow it to continue operating. “If you enjoy any of this content, any of it at all, it is highly recommended that you take one measly second out of your life to actually navigate to any of our many, many articles that grace your social media feed for free. Or, hell, you could even look at our homepage once in a while. Because unless you actually visit the website, there eventually won’t be one, you ungrateful pricks.” At press time, sources added that, in all likelihood, you had merely enjoyed seeing this headline on Facebook or Twitter and probably weren’t even reading this fucking article.

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I can announce that Deval Patrick has not broken through these rankings.

However, he’s making some of our other rankings a little more complicated.

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Steyer one poll and a few donors from dec debate after getting 5% in NV

buying your way into the debates works

That man wastes a lot of paper, and I don’t mean money.

https://twitter.com/mldauber/status/1194992096022683648?s=19

Holy shit

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That should do it. But on this timeline may not.

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Anyone know how likely voters are determined? If its based on 2016 we shouldn’t forget that Hillary was an extremely terribad candidate who did nothing for the base except inspire solely on the basis of electing the first female president.

I think every polling outfit is different, but I’m extremely skeptical that polling numbers this far out really mean anything

Models differ by pollster, but the secret sauce almost always considers past voting history (usually going back over multiple elections, but giving more weight to recency) and demographic factors that have traditionally been good predictors of propensity to vote (age, race, education level, etc).

538 pod had a good discussion recently w/ Nate Cohn where they talked about education being an important factor in Trump polling accuracy b/c higher education white voters are typically over sampled while Trump in 2016 got higher turnout from non college grad whites than most models would have predicted.

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That’s all nice but its like saying more people like steak because historically steak eaters are more likely to eat dinner, meanwhile ignoring the fact that steak was on the menu last week and vegetarians don’t vote because there is never a veg candidate.