Nothing yikes about it:
Not even sure what the counterargument would be. Look at the Houthis that we want the Saudis to recognize as the government as Yemen:
Lot of similarities to the Taliban, imo.
Putin is going to need a major offramp to actually agree to a cease fire, I don’t see him agreeing without at a minimum a formal recognition from kiev that Crimea and maybe Donbas are part of Russia. Plus probably more. How much is Zelensky willing to agree to?
As someone who has recently studied at the Twitter Military Academy, well aware that 3-4 weeks is when an invading army will typically want to pause to resupply, regroup and consolidate gains.
Hopefully the Ukranians aren’t getting played.
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They have been regrouping around the cities and resorted to indiscriminate bombing.
All Ukraine can do is continue to arm / train more soldiers. Get more food / weaponry in to their cities. And do ambush attacks.
I think Zelinsky is unwilling to give up any territory but might accept a referendum with strong UN involvement to determine the fate of Crimea and Donbas.
Is their oil in crimea?
Even if there is a peace agreement between putin and zelenskyy, putin might not want it unless sanctions are removed. I am not sure putin is serious about negotiation here.
Tulsi Gabbard is calling for a ceasefire so the 25+ Ukrainian biolabs that don’t exist can be secured.
https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1503004351975075845
https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1503004976880271372
https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1503005313204736001
https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1503005564313346057
https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1503008211993083905
Care.org has a Ukrainian fund but I am not sure what their administrative overhead is.
A donation to this appeal supports CARE’s Ukraine Crisis Fund aiming to reach 4 million with immediate aid and recovery, food, water, hygiene kits, psychosocial support, and cash assistance — prioritizing women and girls, families, and the elderly.
Charitynavigator has them with overhead of 8.1% or so.
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The Russians seem to be expressing their geopolitical interests within their sphere of influence by denazifying hospitals:
https://twitter.com/SaadAbedine/status/1503072171475845123?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1503072171475845123|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_4c195d52-a2fa-11ec-a011-2e63f4b6abb1%2F0
They’re pretty good at it:
It’s important for pipelines. At the time of the invasion of Crimea the oil and gas company in Crimea went from being controlled by the Ukrainian State gas company to Gazprom. There have been a few pipelines in the Black Sea, all of which control Crimean territory was probably necessary for the development, but the current one shipping Russian Gas out while avoiding going through Ukraine is the TurkStream pipeline.
There is gas in Ukraine though, potentially lots in Eastern Ukraine. The Yuzivska Gas field was discovered in 2010 in the Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Originally it was going to be developed by Royal Dutch Shell, but they pulled out because of the separatist fighting in 2014. Its proven reserves are 71 trillion cubic feet.
I’m sure this has nothing to do with the war and it’s all about Nazis and someone’s desire to recreate the Empire of Catherine the Great or the Glory of Stalin’s USSR.
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I just read up on Donbas gas reserves.
Yeah no way Zelensky gives that up. No wonder Putin is okay with an independent donbas while he drills gas there.
That’s nuts. I had ignored this story when it first popped up because it sounded too absurd to be true.
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Maybe I’m the sweetsummerchild, but I’ve been thinking that Zelenskyy is the one person with any power here (not Putin or NATO or EU or US certainly not Germany the country with its ex-Chancellor on the Boards of Gazprom and Rosneft) who might not be primarily motivated by what happens with natural gas.
seems like Putin would never go for this
this is absolutely going to be a condition, there’s no reason for Putin to stop otherwise. Anything less than the status quo before the invasion is a humiliation for Putin and we’re nowhere close to a point where he would accept anything even smelling of an L