https://mobile.twitter.com/KraemerLars/status/1500971606113492997
https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500972314564911109
wouldn’t be surprised if there was some us hardware or blackops doing some heavy comms work.
belarus servicemen are refusing to go according to intercepts. but at the same time, belarus is transporting russian missiles via rail to the orc army in the north.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1500977392206102528
https://twitter.com/EcasticF/status/1500981717728903171
https://twitter.com/ClockworkOddest/status/1500979576427749383
if there was ever a need for a good bunker meme, it is now
Shocked greenwald was wrong for the 283rd time this year.
I think he believes providing planes directly or through another country are about the same and we should just be doing it directly.
Personally I don’t go with the aircraft is a new line in war supplying that can’t be crossed.
I tried the other day but the site was down.
https://medium.com/@noclador/putins-wish-73467b279bfb
This is a really straightforward detail-packed piece by a guy who claims to be an expert.
Currently the russian army fights only Ukrainians and even the most fanatic putin regime loyalist knows that Ukraine is not an existential threat to the russian nation. Therefore putin’s propaganda lies about Ukraine developing “nuclear weapons”, NATO basing missiles in Ukraine, Ukrainians being “nazis”, etc. to conjure an existential threat to the russian nation.
Unsurprisingly not one of these silly lies struck a nerve with the russian people, so putin is now in need of a new narrative to shore up his support inside russia before the economy implodes. However, the kremlin cannot back up any new narrative with video and image material, so he is stuck. This is where a NATO no-fly zone would bail him out. A NATO no-fly zone would provide the putin regime with the narrative and the images it needs to rally the russian people behind it, as a confrontation with NATO is an existential threat to the russian nation.
However in a confrontation with NATO, a nuclear alliance, putin would claim self-defense and have no qualms about using tactical nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear NATO member. In fact russia’s military doctrine calls for the early use of tactical nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear NATO member to scare the nuclear-weapons possessing NATO members into retreating from a direct confrontation with russia and possible nuclear Armageddon.
In short a NATO imposed no-fly zone would re-legitimize the putin regime and putin’s war inside russia, it would rally the russian people behind putin, and it would give putin an opening to “escalate to de-escalate”, which is what the russian military calls the nuking of a non-nuclear nation. putin is currently increasing the destruction of Ukrainian cities and the civilian suffering to goad NATO into action, but we must not fall into his trap. NATO’s decision to refuse to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine is the correct decision.
The reason even the best russian fighters jets are easy prey for Ukrainian man-portable air-defense system teams is that the putin regime bought a lot of shiny fighters and just a minimal amount of precision guided ammunition. In NATO air campaigns the percentage of precision guided ammunition is 100%, which allows NATO fighter aircraft to cruise 8–10 km above ground and still strike single tanks or artillery systems with pin-point accuracy. russia has already run out of precision guided ammunition and with sanctions blocking the supply of chips and sensors russia can’t replenish its stocks. No precision guided ammo means russia has to resort to dropping dumb bombs — metal boxes filled with explosives, whose impact point depends on the speed, trajectory and height of the airplane at the moment of release. A Su-34 releasing such a bomb at 8 km of altitude (= out of range of Stinger missiles) would see these bombs miss their intended target by a mile. To rectify this russian pilots have to fly as low and slow as possible, making putin’s shiny fighters nothing but lumbering metal blocks that a Stinger missile cannot miss.
Additionally the U.S. should acquire the following air defense systems from allied nations and transfer them to Ukraine asap as Ukraine operates these systems and could start to use them immediately:
- Buk from Cyprus, Egypt, Finland
- Osa from Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Jordan, Poland, Romania
- Tor from Cyprus, Egypt, Greece
- S-300 from Bulgaria, Greece, Slovakia
Providing some of the above listed surface-to-air missile systems, 1,000s of Stinger missiles, and 30–40 Mig-29 fighters will suffice to tilt the air war in favor of Ukraine, without giving putin his desired confrontation with NATO. And while establishing a no-fly zone is an act of war, transferring military equipment is common and has never been considered an act of war in history or law; which is well evidenced by russia’s non-stop transfer of military equipment to Syria to aid in the genocide of Syria’s people.
There could be some worlds where Russia has a little nibble on the Baltics to see what will happen but the world we live in is not one of them.
I think one fundamental disagreement ITT is that people seem to think that the invasion of Ukraine signifies a strong, resurgent Russia but to me it’s apparent that it was done as a consequence of weakness. It was done in recognition of the fact that Russia’s ability to project regional power is in decline. Russia were unable to keep a pro-Russian regime in power in Kyiv, and they were unable to do so because they increasingly have nothing to offer anyone.
Any concern that Russia looking like a total clown show is going to intensify things? Pretty much the Brendan Schaub of countries at this point.
What about a NATO-protected evacuation corridor?
I have no interest in seeing Russia regain regional power by conquering Ukraine. I suppose you don’t want to make their decline so obvious that they are tempted to throw a nuclear hail mary.
I think this seems like a big driver for Putin nuke concerns. Seems way less likely he even threatens Nukes if they just ran over Ukraine, although their economy/currency was going to look like a clownshow regardless given sanctions.
good video
unavailable
Fine for me
It was unavailable when posted. I saw it switch from being unavailable to available as I was reading the post.