If Russia invades Estonia, would you prefer engaging in WW3 or withdrawing from NATO if that was an option?
Ok then we’re sort of on the same page except we were assuming very different scenarios on NBZ’s poll. I’m clocking out for the day, see you tomorrow! 
1 Like
You mean we can have a foreign policy not based on Kissingerian realpolitik?
Which is one reason I’m against NATO going in now. Tom Nichols had a fairly persuasive argument that Putin would never be able to just launch major nukes (not tactical) at the West under the current conditions. But an all-out war with NATO may just get the generals to rally around him and make something crazy happen. That doesn’t seem like an acceptable risk.
But a Putin who would use nukes in the battlefield, and they lead to a victory, is going to want to use them again. Crazy is already on the table at that point. There’s no going back. So if that happens, taking him out now vs. later now seems worth the risk to me and just pray the Russians don’t want to end humanity.
Yes if you take the “How do we get to Star Trek future w/o blowing ourselves up?” view – and the corollary “If we don’t find a way to progress to Star Trek future, we’re going to blow ourselves up” view – many wondrous things are possible.
I think Biden made it clear in the sou that the gloves are off if Putin attacks “one square inch” of NATO soil.
These decisions are not only about what should be done tactically or morally, they are about many actors on your team understanding the play and their role. If Putin sent 10k troops into or started bombing Estonia war with NATO would already be underway, and NATO would have air superiority over Ukraine in a couple of days (assuming that such retaliation didn’t lead to global nuclear war).
Well that’s the whole point of NATO. So yeah he better say that.
Pretty wild that people who are all dead now set us up for exactly this moment, after a few decades of wondering if NATO really mattered anymore.
Maybe you can’t get to Star Trek future without the Bell Riots, the Eugenics Wars, and World War 3.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1500558149069250577
There are aging bunkers like this all over the West Coast, once supporting big anti-aircraft guns. Crazy to imagine having to use them again.
i can’t claim to understand that nuclear doctrine, except to say that we are already in ww3 mode, without the necessary declarations yet.
say US imposes a no fly zone and shoot down a bomber. it’s now officially war, putin has to attack nato (btw he didn’t when turkey shot down a russian plane). and for the sake of the argument i guess he decides on estonia. 1) russia cannot start another land war. that’s nuts. even mobilization is takes time. 2) russia has aircraft committed to ukraine. flying them north isn’t an option. 3) there aren’t enough missiles in the region either, kaliningrad by itself is also mostly strategic. conventional missiles in the region have a very brief window before being blown up, and they might not actually hit anything with nato defenses throwing everything they have to try to intercept and destroy the ones that haven’t fired.
what are his options? he literally only has a ballistic nuke launch at his disposal, probably the site would be considered strategic. if you thought putin’s modus operandi does not include icbm nukes, then no-fly zone is justified.
on the other hand nato has many options. they have enormous air and missile capability which hasn’t even been tapped yet, actual precision strikes that will pick apart any and all land military assets. including putin himself. it’s unlikely tanks would even need to roll onto russian soil to eliminate the defenses of whole cities, some of which would be hugely demoralizing, like st. petersburg. they could even wait and let public unrest overthrow some mayors or governors. there are many isolated areas nato+ukraine can occupy, like kaliningrad, donbass, crimea. fuck they could seize putin’s palace next to sochi. it’s conceivable ossetia and others dash for independence themselves.
at some point the collective west must realize that they are just managing the conflict to 1) delay the time when putin necessarily pushes the button, and 2) try to neutralize as much nuclear arsenal as possible, and 3) immobilize russia the country from achieving any other military objective.
it seems to me that waiting until the last possible point to do a no flyzone achieves 1, helps with 3. letting putin’s troops flounder in the mud with MREs after failing to hold melitopol against territorial forces for a few more weeks achieves 3. we are obviously in the dark on 2.
there are like zero outs that look like putin will back away on his own. he keeps talking like its a street fight, and he thinks that escalating first in a street fight gives him an advantage. but the corollary is that the west needs to seize the initiative.
1 Like
Some powerful writing in this piece.
Those who project Ukraine’s fall as a forgone conclusion — as the inevitable conclusion, they say, that would always have been once Putin set himself on this course — I think they still imagine there is a return to what was before, once Ukraine is done dying — as long as we don’t interfere in the process too much. That somehow, this is the wisest course given how things are supposed to work.
I say if we act, we can help deal Putin a strategic defeat in Ukraine. The form that takes is largely dependent on the Ukrainians and the tools we can get into their hands in time. I say that we have never had a similar opportunity to do so, and that we should respect the choice of the Ukrainians to act on it.
Or do you imagine that we will ever have a better chance to defeat Putin than with an army of 10 million Ukrainians willing to pay the butcher’s bill on our behalf?
There is no way back.
But imagine the world if we save Ukraine. Imagine the century that we might have then.
No comment on the rest of your post, but it is a street fight as far as he’s concerned. Not only that, he wants us to know it’s a street fight. He’s actually been in a street fight and he wants us to know about it. Brawling in the street could have cost him his job but he didn’t care; he wants us to know that too. He’s a thug and he wants us to know he’s a thug. I haven’t actually read it but I’m told this stuff is in his book.
i know
https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1500727156057513985
Apparently this was an oil depot in separatist territory used by Russian troops. Good to see the UKR military still has the strength to attack defended territory.