Ukraine, Russia, and the West

https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1498020061398847495

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Even if the Russian army does eventually surround Kyiv, and I think they’re pretty likely to get to that point, do they have much of a plan from there? If the plan is to hang out surrounding Kyiv for a month or more until they start running short on food and other vital supplies, I’m not sure the Russians will want to hold out that long, and the optics of it are pretty bad for them: mighty conquering army too timid to attack a city they have surrounded? It’s not like Zelenskyy is just going to surrender when encircled.

MOEX has already cancelled pre market trading tomorrow, and their website is down. What are the odds they even open tomorrow?

  1. Have a whole lot of APCs
  2. Have way too much confidence in the armor of your APC
  3. Tanks are also armored.
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Yeah, I still really don’t get the endgame here at all.

Thanks, killjoy.

Chairman of Rosneft was Chancellor of Germany before Merkel.

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https://twitter.com/denisonbe/status/1497949825194725378?s=21

I find the practical effect of this argument no different than “normal” Trumpers who just want to talk about how high gas prices are Biden’s fault (and not talk about Ukraine), and we need to get Trump back in office.

I too miss the simpler times of regime change where we had to overthrow Venezuela’s government to get lithium for fElons’s exploding cars. We even had an Amazon series about it starring Jim from the office. Remember how urgent these people claimed THAT regime change was?

Yeah they’re not set up for a seige domestically. Also I think there’s a good chance any kind of humanitarian crisis gets some NATO countries involved on an active level.

Maybe Putin wants to lay siege, then negotiate from that position of strength. I don’t get the feeling Zelensky is going to be ok with giving up the disputed territories though. I see a “Putin, go fuck yourself” to that.

https://twitter.com/cliffschecter/status/1497987097881452553

https://twitter.com/GOP_EthicsGhost/status/1497986443217715211

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1498021238261829639

putin would find a way to lose the nuclear war too

https://twitter.com/santisiri/status/1497936336870948868?s=20&t=weISGgcLbbXTrDB4tKf0nQ

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javelins and nlaws.

https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497764944355414018

https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497954879540797443

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1497848485797941248

https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1498021862785302536

Seems like a good reality check. Russia is still on their way to winning and once they do create a status quo then will Europeans be as willing to isolate Russia?

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violating rules of war never ceases to make me laugh

yeah we’re trying to kill each other but damnit there are rules that must be followed!

Saddam had one of the largest standing armies in the world. The Armenians weren’t being supplied with endless anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles by NATO.

It seems increasingly likely Putin just wins the war. Obviously governing Ukraine will be close to impossible thereafter.

Well the rules exist because neither side wants to face stuff like poison gas, or mass civilian casualties because the enemy pretends to be a civilian. Once one side is ok with that then they go out the window.

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Sure, agreed.