Fundamental and intractable problem with the world is that the sort of people who get power are the sort of people driven to increase and exercise the power they have.
Shoot, a fella’ could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff.
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Sometimes I think about what I would do if I had a terminal illness. Just look at this asshole.
https://twitter.com/howardmortman/status/1497914211854397443?s=21
We don‘t even see barricades in Kharkiv or anywhere else which makes him think there won‘t be much fighting within the cities.
If the city was defended in any way then every inch between those high rises would be a death zone.
I think it’s the other way around. There’s at least some chance Putin would not have started this war if the West had threatened the apparently apocalyptic sanctions that are being imposed now. Or if the weaponry that’s being delivered now was in Ukrainian hands last month. It was vastly more attractive for Putin to back off before the war started, so the best time to apply pressure was back then. As it is now, this is starting to look like a life-or-death struggle for the Putin regime, which should scare the hell out of everyone.
I’m concerned that lots of people in Europe were going along in a delusional fog about Russia for years and now that it’s become politically untenable, they’re trying to make up for lost time. That’s a noble enough impulse, but I really can’t stress enough how critical it is to avoid having a billion+ people killed by someone’s overzealous attempt to save face.
I really do want to know what happens if a Polish convoy delivering weapons is attacked and a bunch of Polish soldiers are killed. Hopefully the answer is “nothing,” but I worry that the real answer is “no one thought about it, but now that they have they want to invoke Article V.”
There’s some discussion ITT of Putin deciding to nuke the world out of the blue, but that’s not how it will go down. The path to Armageddon is NATO getting drawn more and more into direct conflict with Russia, Putin losing and growing desperate, and then Russia launching some kind of tactical nuclear strike that spirals into an all out war.
Western countries should be thinking about the safest way to pilot this situation towards a just postwar settlement, not just trying to flex their anti-Putin bona fides. It may be that open military assistance to Ukraine is the best way to achieve that goal, but I’m unconvinced. It’s unclear how big of an effect additional weapons being delivered now will have, but the west taking on the role of participants in the war is going to make it harder to lead Putin to some acceptable-to-him off-ramp from his war.
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They should be. Their military is less than one tenths of Ukraine‘s.
Putin orders nuclear deterrence forces on high alert
Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert after aggressive statements by Nato countries, Reuters reports.
Breaking news, more details to follow.
I found this a super useful explainer.
Putin rattling the saber. Nothing more.
I think it means he’s feeling cornered.
Before:
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497928191624859652?s=21
After:
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1497917403304452097?s=21
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I’m not too optimistic that Putin’s demands will be anything less than returning Ukraine to a pre 2014 vassal state, ousting Zelensky and installing some puppet regime.
Ukraine should demand crimea back in any peace talks.
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Yeah. A nuke on western Ukraine could lead to a fallout that would impact Poland which would probably invoke Article 5.
Update 2: Czech Republic also says no to playing Russia at any location.
Don’t know what FIFA is going to do now. Basically the choices are:
- Kick Russia out, possibly with Hungary or Slovakia taking Russia’s spot.
- Award Russia two walkover wins, and thus World Cup qualification.
- Rearrange the brackets if they can find someone willing to play Russia.
https://twitter.com/ceskarepre_eng/status/1497875324947865605
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