i mean, if somehow annexation of crimea was recognized in exchange to russia laying down their arms at ukrainian border, that would certainly quite an accomplishment for putin’s legacy. but noone will believe that russia will retreat and never try to take donbass/mariupol again. what kiund of guarantee could putin give anyway?
If Ukraine became a member of NATO the security of Donbass/Mariupol would be guaranteed.
nato membership isn’t immediate like that. the ukrainian side lost 14k soldiers in donbass, and it is an ongoing conflict, something that membership in nato requires to be resolved peacefully. so, in some sense, ukraine would have to regain security of its eastern borders as a prerequisite, while creating an acceptable legal framework of reintegrating the population there. i just don’t think ukraine as a country can let go of whole regions for the permission to play with nato, but i could be wrong. certainly most discourse there talks about the necessity of reclaiming both donbass and crimea.
The port is the thing in Ukraine that it makes sense for the Russians to care about. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Russian goal was to make it Russian forever in the eyes of the world.
Russia has a lot of land but not a lot of port access at least until global warming opens up their coastline in the winter.
Trading Crimea (which Russia already has control of) for Donbas (which Ukraine does not currently have control of) doesn’t seem like a bad deal. Agree that Putin could always reinvade Donbas, but then you could just reimpose whatever sanctions you think are an appropriate punishment for invading Crimea. I have a lot of trouble imagining a world where Ukraine regains control of Crimea, but it’s relatively easy to imagine a world where they let it go, escape the worst forms of Russian interference in the rest of their territory, and are able to forge ahead with becoming a successful European-facing country. Giving that path up on the principle of retaking Crimea seems foolish, at least when your chances of getting Crimea back are so remote.
i think a realistic course could be 1) putin dies/removed, 2) several regions try to dash for independence, some suppression of separatist movement occurs like it did at other times, but 3) crimea instead gets a period of interim independence/special status and a new referendum. if russia continues to be a shitshow, while ukraine is improving, there’s no reason crimeans would not want to go back.
can still be both
the latter was all “it’s totally normal for russia to put all those troops on the border having no plans to use them” which is insane.
I just thought they still hadn’t fully made up their mind and were just gonna see the response to it and if it was weak enough go in. (which europe wants that pipeline so…)
Oh cool, we’re gonna need another terrifying global crisis if COVID keeps declining.
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Russia needs that second genocide in a century in Ukraine great
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if you’re surprised the guy who fled russia b/c he’s pro democracy/anti putin so he thought (correctly let’s face it) they’d try to kill him and the guy who is stuck in russia b/c he’s the only one dumb enough to have fallen for whatever greenwald told him have different viewpoints on this I mean, idk what to say.
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I really have no idea what is happening in this thread. All I can say is lol zara and USA, and that ain’t much, nor new.
I think there is a world where we can accept this is mostly Putin’s fault and he is the bad guy, and the best option is to still let him win for the most part wrt Ukraine. Really, what are we supposed to do?
If Russia wants to invade Ukraine it most likely will, and Ukraine probably wont put up much of a fight, nor should it. I am not sure the strategic point of selling Ukraine a bunch of military equipment just for Russia to take (short of enriching companies involved in this).
Russia has committed genocide in Ukraine once already. This isn’t necessarily some yeah whatever action for Ukrainians
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Thank you Mr. Obvious. Please, do go on with your vast wisdom. Reading your posts, you really shouldn’t post your opinions in adults’ section. Go buy some nfts or meth.
Should the US feel obligated to protect Ukrainian sovereignty because of promises made to get them to give up nukes after the fall of the Soviet Union?
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When have you protected anyone you should have? What the fuck do you know about war?
I don’t have a problem with sending weapons to Ukraine, but I do feel very strongly that the US should not get involved directly if Russia does invade. I’m not going to volunteer to fight back the Russians that’s for sure.
I still would guess that a large scale invasion is unlikely, but who knows?
Who are these people? Saiph and Scylvendi listen closely, fuck you!
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