Should the UK have intervened to prevent the annexation of Texas? The situation is roughly analogous.
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I assume it’s meant to counter the “Ukraine has always been part of Russia” narrative in some way.
My grandparents were both Jews born in Chernivsti (was Czernowitz then, to them at least) and came to the US around 1920. It’s a pretty interesting place and has changed hands a shitload of times (Chernivtsi - Wikipedia), so the idea that it “belongs” to Russia is absurd.
During the 19th and early 20th century, Chernivtsi became a center of both Romanian and Ukrainian national movements. In 1908, it was the site of the first Yiddish language conference, the Czernowitz Conference, coordinated by Nathan Birnbaum. When Austria-Hungary dissolved in 1918, followed by two years of political uncertainty in Europe due to the aftermath of World War I, the city and its surrounding area became part of the Kingdom of Romania, which gained worldwide diplomatic recognition by the end of 1920.[18] During those two years, even most city residents did not know of which country they were citizens, with most assuming Czernowitz still belonged to Austria-Hungary.[19] German remained the lingua franca of the city and its suburbs for another decade. In 1930, the city reached a population of 112,400: 26.8% Jews, 23.2% Romanians, 20.8% Germans, 18.6% Ukrainians, the remainder Poles and others. It was one of the five university centers of interwar Romania.[ citation needed ]
In 1940, the Red Army occupied the area; the area around the city became known as Chernivtsi Oblast, and was allotted to the Ukrainian SSR by the Soviet Union.[18] The city’s large Romanian intelligentsia found refuge in Romania; while the Bukovina Germans were “repatriated” according to a Soviet-Nazi agreement. Under the regime of military dictator Ion Antonescu, Romania had switched from an ally of France and Britain to one of Nazi Germany; subsequently, in July 1941, the Romanian Army retook the city as part of the Axis attack on the Soviet Union during World War II. Chernivtsi would become the capital of the Romanian Bukovina Governorate.[20] In August 1941, Antonescu ordered the creation of a ghetto in the lowland part of the city, where 50,000 Bukovina Jews were crammed, two-thirds of whom would be deported in October 1941 and early 1942 to Transnistria, where the majority perished. The Romanian mayor of the city Traian Popovici managed to persuade Antonescu to raise the number of Jews exempted from deportation from 200 to 20,000.[21][22]
At the time the UK did throw support behind an independent Texas.
Did the UK have an ongoing security pact guaranteeing the security of Texas?
(the situation isn’t analogous)
I dont think the UK had any agreements with Spain or Mexico.
I’m not saying then was right. But letting Putin roll in isn’t right. I’m no expert and I’d prefer it not be shooting but I’m ok with massive sanctions.
I mean, that’s great and all, but I’ve lived through a time when sanctions were supposed to stop Castro, stop Saddam, stop Qaddafi, stop Khomeni, and stop Kim. We’re now on our third Kim, our second Castro, Khomeni is still there, and the reason why Saddam and Qaddafi aren’t isn’t because of sanctions. Maybe there’s nothing better to do, but I fully expect sanctions to do fuck-all.
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Where are the Jewish Space lasers?
They are pretty good causing poor children to starve.
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I counter that with arguing for an autocracy without certain freedoms is always easy when it is not your own backyard.
second castro supposedly issued a statement supporting putin’s actions.
And sanctions are less effective against Russia than against a smaller country/economy.
the sanctions are not effective as the final blow, but they are effective at containment. the economic situation in russia is basically zero growth for 8 years now and high inflation. they are sitting on a monumental pile of money though, so it will take a while for the regime to start starving.
the sanctions being proposed are personal ones aimed at those who made the decisions and took action on donbass. denying them a safe space in europe/us would be great. starting to confiscate shell assets would be even better.
I’m not saying I’m against the sanctions, I’m saying they’re not going to achieve the goal of stopping Putin from taking Ukraine if he wants it.
At this point it seems pretty clear IMO that Putin is going to take every inch of land he thinks he can get without triggering American/NATO intervention. It also seems clear that we won’t stop him from invading any former Soviet territory that does not belong to a NATO member.
It’s not clear IMO that we will stop him from taking the Baltic States, either. Unless/until we move more military assets into the Baltic States, that seems up for debate.
Biden will now address the nation at 1pm EST regarding the situation in Ukraine. It was just moved up an hour.
this is the first time putin took territory while under sanctions. in 08/14 russia was in good standing, and was even involved in sanctions against iran.
i think sanctions against russia did freeze the donbass conflict, and four of those were under a hapless pompeo state dept. and it still isn’t clear if russia achieved anything lasting at this moment. like javelins will start flying when separatists start encroachments onto donetsk/luhansk oblast’ currently controlled by ukraine.
iow, sanctions are not a silver bullet but it’s not as simple as “not effective”
Except no one’s arguing for autocracy, simply against war.
If you offered me a Putin style dictatorship in the UK or a huge war costing hundreds of thousands of lives here, I’ll take the Putin thing as the lesser evil.
And that’s my own back yard.
You think he didn’t know that sanctions would be the consequences for this action? It’s already baked in.
Well, we’ll see. I don’t think they’re going to stop him from doing whatever he wants.
The reason why Saddam isn’t still there is hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis - many more than his regime killed.
no shit! had no idea
this is coming from a podcast so i guess i can also be skeptical about its insight. prior to crimea, putin saw the relatively mild sanctions used against iran, and knew he would be able to counter them. after crimea, russia was actually surprised at the severity, and was caught off guard. they were so mad, they installed countersanctions, which really only meant they created more sanctions on themselves with respect to where to buy food products.
the economic downturn that followed was not expected by putin. it definitely slowed him down, and the entire reason he waited to take parts of donbass, as opposed to annexing it at the same time as crimea.
crimea still considered occupied territory by the way, so russian businesses with presence in the west do not do business there. so, bigger russian banks and telecoms. that’s a significant economic downgrade for the region, but it’s pressure is admittedly slow.
eta: i don’t expect a sudden donbass renaissance, except actoss the border in ukraine.