Ukraine, Russia, and the West

Yes, that’s exactly my point. It makes sense for Ukraine to want to join the West. That would be good for Ukraine, they’d probably benefit a lot. But Russia won’t let it join the West, which sucks for Ukraine. As Mearsheimer says:

Next, Putin put massive pressure on the new government in Kiev to discourage it from siding with the West against Moscow, making it clear that he would wreck Ukraine as a functioning state before he would allow it to become a Western stronghold on Russia’s doorstep. Toward that end, he has provided advisers, arms, and diplomatic support to the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, who are pushing the country toward civil war. He has massed a large army on the Ukrainian border, threatening to invade if the government cracks down on the rebels. And he has sharply raised the price of the natural gas Russia sells to Ukraine and demanded payment for past exports. Putin is playing hardball.

So the choice for Ukraine isn’t between joining the West and becoming a prosperous liberal democracy and being some sort of neutral buffer state. It’s a choice between trying to join the West and having the Russians wreck your country to keep that from happening and backing off that ambition and becoming a neutral buffer state.