Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

many parents in russia right now are thinking of every possible way of avoiding conscription. reservists are dodging calls from voenkomat commisars, people are leaving the country and trying to get a legal right to live in georgia and turkey and elsewhere. dnr/lnr men of 17-60 are actually in hiding.

my own family also immigrated because of distinct possibility of a draft into first chechen war.

but victoar here feels helping ukraine defeat an invading army is not caring about russians enough. you could simply donate to programs helping both ukrainians and russian refugees

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These bloggers need to adjust their priors.

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on.

The effects of this change in tone and discourse by these milbloggers are uncertain but could be potent. People living under tightly censored regimes often trust individuals who seem to be independent of but generally aligned with the government more than the government line (even more than do citizens of democratic societies). The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders (at least).

The destruction of the motorized rifle elements may also severely disrupt Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.

ISW

meanwhile Ukraine won Eurovision-2022. guess they get to host it next year. the trolls are suggesting holding it in Yalta (crimea)

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I am no military expert, but advancing towards Vovchansk would mean that your left flank is the Russian border, so slowly advancing north along the Donez until you can hit it with some precision, seems line the correct strategy. Directly going for Vovchansk seems like the Ukranian army would risk overstretching their lines and don’t forget there is the same River in the way that just trapped the Russian unit while crossing (although it is probably smaller this mich further north)

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1525727105933357056

This is sick sick stuff.

https://twitter.com/AsamiTerajima/status/1525632053395464192

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https://twitter.com/PaulNiland/status/1525725679815360514

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1525704460214878208

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1525721354569383936

No. “Islamaphobia” is not a “form of bigotry.” It’s a phrase invented by Muslims to pretend that they’re somehow victims. They’re not. And we have every right to despise terrorists

One third of the ground combat force committed in February is what? 50,000 troops?

Closer to 70000, I believe.

Not the same thing.

To put it mildly. I find it difficult to believe this is a good faith analogy.

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This is as sharp as a hammer

In 6+ years of posting in 2+2 politics and here I have never put a poster on ignore. You might end up with the honour of being the one to pop my “ignore” cherry.

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This is a huge leak.

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I guess mostly posters just don’t bother that much, even if I violently disagree with them. 90% of Victor’s posts are not only zero-content, they basically take one of two forms: “stop lying, liar” and “x ghana y”. They’re a bit of an eyesore to the point I’d consider them spam.

So moving on from the awful trolling:

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1525843256285679617?s=21&t=b3Q5emkTo-uqktp9NLT8UA

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1525843448233807878?s=21&t=b3Q5emkTo-uqktp9NLT8UA

Russia doesn’t do this, and the military people seem to think this is a massive factor

I can’t imagine the autonomy is absolute, there has to be a least some coordination to make sure one group is not doing something that would disrupt or bring attention to a high value target of another group.