Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

May Day parade faced severe budget cuts this year.

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https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1523403272517976064

This is not confirmed real yet. Twitter has some doubts but can’t rule it out as fake either.

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Keep expecting a fat Ukrainian kid to fall out of the sky and crush them

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So. Its seems that satellite images will become increasingly important in war, right?

At what point do we see the first satellite being shot down?

Space Force, FTW!!!

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Why has the date been changed with a pen from 2021 to 2022?

Using up old forms? That certainly doesn’t add to its credibility, but it doesn’t really detract from it either. I’ve seen this done quite a few times in my life.

Or a cardboard tractor to come and drag them away.

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Assuming there’s an actual full scale mobilization of Russia. And assuming that this doesn’t break their society (which there’s a real chance it would), how many troops is that? 500k? 1M? 2M?

Obviously the quality of these troops would suck, but quantity has a quality all it’s own as the saying goes.

It would be really fucking dumb to spend all these troops in one location like Eastern Ukraine. They’d have to open up a new front… and it would make a lot of sense to open a front outside of Ukraine as well if you truly think you’re already at war with NATO.

Scary shit.

Already happened at least three times I think. I helped test a concept warhead over 25 years ago. (That was in Utah, not space.)

I assume they mean as an act of war

In that case, nevermind. Could be tomorrow though.

It makes no sense to mobilize 1 million reservists and then attack NATO with its 3 million soldiers and superior equipment. There is no way this doesn’t end in disaster.
What they can do instead is overwhelm Ukraine from the north, south, east and maybe even the west via Transnistria. With superior numbers Russia can force Ukraine to spread itself thin and then thrust spearheads where defenses are weakest. Rinse, repeat.

I’m not sure they have enough tanks and trucks in good working order to open up a new front anywhere.

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  1. I agree that it would not be a rational decision.
  2. There’s not 3 million NATO troops on their borders though.
  3. I wonder if that’s too many people for them in just Ukraine.

1 million Russians don‘t just show up announced either. If Russia started a massive build-up of troops NATO would react.

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This. There’s no number of poorly trained, poorly equipped cannon fodder that is going to make a difference in combat.

In that timeframe I have to say no, but it’s close. Change it to the next few weeks and I flip to yes. It could be another no now but yes soon after deal. Might depend on which direction he thinks the patriotic wind is blowing at the parade.

I mean, you could open one. Putin could indeed send a half a million people into Finland. But, uh, they won’t get very far with only the food and ammo they can carry. No invasion can endure without supporting logistics, and Russia hasn’t shown that they have the logistics to sustain even one single front against motivated opposition. Cannon fodder is way more valuable as a defensive force, as you have an easier time resupplying them.

“You have been mobilized. Please report with your automobile and any weapons or safety gear you have.”

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