I’d like to add that Putin would want to send a message to other Eastern European countries that they must stay corrupt or else cooperation with the West will lead to their destruction.
Interesting analysis of the available evidence of the claimed strike on the Russian frigate. Summary: inconclusive, with the video that is circulating probably a fake.
If possible I’d narrow down his motivations to a single factor that would help us estimate the probability he does x in a given situation. It sounds silly but it amounts to the same thing as people are doing in practice except they’re doing it in a haphazard way. There is such a thing as opponent modeling, if I remember anything about that one game we all used to play.
Anyway, if it is possible, that factor is not money and it isn’t fossil fuels and it isn’t the international standing of the Russian state, imo. It’s something simple and personal that directly affects his view of himself and his self esteem. It’s a desire for power and control, or at least the perception of those things that really drives him, is my guess. Or it’s avoiding looking weak or being shamed or humiliated.
1 Like
There’s no way Ukraine is running low on men that are fit for military service at this point. Realistically that’s not going to be an issue, training and equipment would be the bottleneck.
From:
Available for military service 11,149,646, age 16–49 (2015)
Fit for military service 6,970,035, age 16–49 (2015)
Reaching military age annually 470,406 (2021)
Active personnel 196,600 (2022)
Reserve personnel 900,000 (2022)
I remember reading that they started training like 200-300k reservists(?) right at the beginning of the war, these were expected to be combat ready sometime in June. Can’t find the reference now though, prob just some random twitter.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1522896647025573888?t=WbBv5NBFDTveF2f8abAI7A&s=19
Except, as people point out, it’s nowhere to be found. So still possible it sank or was damaged and Putin doesn’t want it to be known until after his victory announcement or whatever on the 9th.
hopium.
meanwhile kiev got a new art installation.
inscription on the side says “Zастрелись”, or “shoot yourself” with the Z obv, and mentions Putler, a popular mashup of putin and hitler.
how else would the state take care of their heroic veterans of special operations?
it’s government issued aid/reward in the form of food, which will be more useful than money soon enough.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1522888321847996416?t=vMCPeAJDIS043e-bsB_nYQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1522875184725823488?t=b4Ro2FysrtXRWgS6icTpRw&s=19
The West is just as corrupt, if not worse.
I agree. He can’t possibly spend his money. It’s about either legacy or a darker plan of taking my ball and going home. By that I mean he knew all along the invasion would go this poorly, that was his plan. The end game is if he can’t survive, neither can earth.
GLOBAL THERMAL NUCLEAR WAR.
1 Like
Idk but if this thing were around you’d think it could make itself useful by providing some air cover around Snake Island, but it’s not.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1522897994701549573?t=fDKWmdRfL788gdiOFiyMUQ&s=19
1 Like
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1522989565631295489?t=P9fUyCbqZTnfnLe4zoO0SQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1522989591401316352?t=XDHvqcddAPo2Qm05AOCSHA&s=19
1 Like
I don’t think he wants to die. He sure doesn’t want to go like Gaddafi. But I don’t think he intended the war to expand beyond Ukraine, and really just thought it was free for the taking so why not. Question is how he balances the risks from here. He’s supposed to be some master strategist but definitely fucked up and acts impulsively at times, so ww3 is in his range.
1 Like
With that level of precision, I’m wondering if vulnerable/explosive parts of ships can be targeted by drones (though ships are moving targets). May be possible to sink significant ships with one well placed drone missle.