Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

this is a weird take, given that rewinding to only 7 years ago, the putin-ukraine conflict had already undergone election and political interference in ukraine for 10 years (featuring the very same medvechuk and yanukovich), annexation of crimea, and a fomented violent conflict by russian agents resulting in thousands of deaths in the donbass, under the pretext hoax of a crucified boy.

and as you fast forward to now, at least one of the surviving military heads of peoples republics are that now in the russian duma? i’m sure that’s coincidence.

From my understanding the Chechens have been committing lots of war crimes, but are significantly better at combat than the main Russian forces, albeit still a lot worse than the Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521271494306713600

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521272359864479745

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521273261564248064

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521274539946172418

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521275881582387212

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521278978761412610

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Whether by May 9 or some time in the next few weeks

Is it a Special Military Operation or War?
  • Putin declares war
  • Putin will not declare war
  • Whatever, this is on the West

0 voters

I think Putin will have his Goebbels-style total war moment.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1521226385422966788?t=kVOIrG034Tr3wjYphE43PA&s=19

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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521478367429767168

I think Putin is following 70 years of us policy. Don’t declare war.

I think he will declare war because he’s not ready to give up and though it’s not without additional risk and cost, it would be a middle ground between his other options, either 1) partially withdrawing and trying to hold onto territory, and 2) a nuclear stunt of some kind.

He may not actually call it war but there will be mobilization. Maybe he’ll go with Special Military Membership Drive.

There are some gems in here.

So, that’s the thing. There was this one general who visited us near Izyum (in Kharkiv oblast). He gave an order for our tanks to move on like “Be quick, attack!” – and they just went into a minefield. Half of our brigade was lost, it was just burned. One of the soldiers was so mad that he got in a tank and drove over the general’s feet. The general died in the hospital later.

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It was widely reported at the time.

propaganda you can feel good about.

In Motyzhyn, Kyiv region, a 70-year-old woman “aimed” the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at Russian equipment.

She reported the invaders’ location to Ukrainian soldiers.

This story was told by a serviceman on the Facebook page of the Territorial Defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The pensioner helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces to destroy several dozen units of enemy equipment.

Unfortunately, the woman’s heroism cost her her life.

"She had a remote house in the village and she saw the equipment moving. She went out to the enemy, counted the pieces of equipment, then explained to her son on the phone what she saw.

There were cases when she would go out, get lost, come back and count again," said the Ukrainian defender.

The pensioner was helping the Ukrainian military for more than 2 weeks.

During this time she recorded “Buk” anti-aircraft missile systems - 2 units of this equipment were destroyed.

The woman also helped the artillery destroy a radar station that was jamming communications.

"Unfortunately, the “orcs” [Russian soldiers] realised who was doing it and razed this house to the ground. She (the woman - ed.) died.

When they bombed it, they drove their tanks over where the house had stood," the military man said.

According to him, information provided by the elderly resident of the Kyiv region had helped the military.

“It was thanks to her, to be honest, that they did not move on. They were able to reach Yasnohorodka, , but their reconnaissance got kicked in the teeth there and left. Then they didn’t dig trenches in other villages,” the man added.

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I understand. It’s hard to grasp how a person wouldn’t see or hear a tank company. We also never would have believed Russian tanks are something out of the Atari 2600 game combat either.

if you haven’t been following russian celebrities coming out AGAINST or FOR the war, and I don’t blame you if you haven’t, you might not know that many popular entertainment programs on tv in russia have been on hiatus, or stopped, in favor of pro-war programming.

well, one of the more popular tv hosts, maxim galkin, left russia (for israel i think? could be elsewhere too), and has posted multiple ANTI-WAR videos. for which he’s now fired from tv channel 1.

when his program resumes, it will be hosted by none other that @zarapochka’s favorite Nikolai Tsiskaridze, the ballet director of bolshoi, or some other theater. he’s rarely needed to say anything about politics before, but he had gone out of his way to criticize the west’s russophobia, and domestic opposition figures. now, he’s full on replacing dissenting voices in accordance with the regime’s wishes.

sigh

In Soviet Russia, tanks defeat de feet.

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This is LONG but very interesting article discussing the perspectives and psychology of around 50 different Russian interviewees, almost all of whom support the war. Provides some interesting insight.

Pretty convincing:

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1521803362152374274?s=21&t=0SZ143wyenG_BFk6Vzrf9g

Yeah. Like I don’t really know what I am talking about but I have thought many of these same things independently. Like it seems like Russia will be able to consolidate and hold a land bridge to Crimea and naval domination in the Black Sea/Sea of Azov without full mobilization. The benefits of full mobilization seem uncertain and the risks are MASSIVE. If it happens it won’t be the most shocked I have ever been in my life or anything but it will definitely be a surprise to me.

Agreed. I actually don’t expect Russia to hold much of their new territory long-term, but I don’t expect the reason for their loss to be “didn’t have enough poorly trained guys running around.” If anything, in the process of getting killed without accomplishing anything, the hypothetical conscripts will also lose a bunch of important equipment.

This stuff is virtually identical to listening to deplorable Republicans with a perception of reality limited by Fox New. Whether they’re ranting about Nazi Ukrainians or Woke Radical Socialists it all sounds the same to me.

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