Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Did they arm wrestle? If I was interviewing Putin I would 100% offer to arm wrestle him.

I’m curious if Putin plays chess.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1756981970691625352?t=qaTlVFsY4gKwUBHJSXPT7A&s=19

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So no chatter on this site about Navalny? CNN seems to think it’s a very big deal that could have repercussions.

The two year mark of the war is coming up. Things look grim at the moment. I’m sure I left some things out.

  • Ukraine is on the defensive.
  • Avdiivka is falling.
  • Ukraine is low on ammunition.
  • Russia will likely have the initiative throughout this year.
  • There is some disarray and lack of confidence in Ukraine’s military leadership.
  • The US is not providing significant aid rn.
  • Even if more aid is approved soon, there will be delays delivering it.
  • The US Congress is corrupt and influenced by Putin.
  • Trump might end NATO.
  • Russia might attack another European country.
  • Russian losses are huge but they can sustain them for years if they have to.
  • Sanctions have hurt Russia but they can sustain this too.
  • The war has spread to the Middle East.
  • Iran, NK, and China are supporting Russia.
  • Russia continues to target civilians.
  • Elon and Tucker are doing their bits.
  • Navalny is dead and Putin is laughing it up.

It’s not all bad news.

  • Ukraine is able to ship their grain.
  • Ukraine has largely knocked Russia’s Black Sea Fleet out of action.
  • Russian air defense is not as effective as it was.
  • The Russian air force has been pushed back from the front lines.
  • The Ukrainians are able to attack facilities far inside Russia.
  • Ukrainians are demolishing Russian vehicles with drones.
  • F-16s should appear soon.
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ukraine and germany signed a security arrangement. similar agreement with france is on deck.

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it’s very difficult to say anything constructive right now. FBK people in every post have called for navalny’s followers not to give up. seems like good advice, and this ultimately is very risky play by putin. march 17 will be absolutely gut wrenching.

there already happened and there will be more anti-putin protests in big cities this weekend. if you happen to be near them, go and check them out.

Commentary on Navalny. I think this was genuinely difficult for Vexler to do.

Most people think this is the right thing to do. Hopefully they didn’t wait too long.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1758646096459350214?t=qgL28zk4qGpNg13ofn1cjQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1758655409957536148

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My Republican congressman has this on issues\foreign-policy page:

We must continue supporting our friends in Ukraine and shoring up our NATO alliances to deter any further Russian aggression.

So I sent an email politely telling him to get off his ass but I doubt he can really do much more than I did.

this is one thing he absolutely can do something about, it won’t take many GOP reps to get the discharge petition moving

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Following the UK’s lead (signed in January)

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What does it do other than providing a good feeling? We still havent increased production of ammunition and I doubt thats gonna change for Germany as our parties are arguing about new debts for months. The only way you would get the votes right now would be the government making cuts to the social safety net.

Also my question. Does the security arrangement guarantee that UK/Germany/France will fight a country which attacks Ukraine? Because I’m a little skeptical those countries are signing a pledge to go to war with Russia, so what is the arrangement? It sounds like just a paper that says they’ll continue to send the things they’ve been sending in the past, which isn’t enough to even sustain a stalemate in the war without US congress also sending bigger and better support.

Not holding my breath for word of who did it.

https://x.com/BNONews/status/1759641098756964700?s=20

Four Russian jets were recently shot down. Speculation is the Ukrainians are risking a Patriot battery for this. You might also expect jets to start getting mysteriously taken out if F-16s were there, but latest word is pilots won’t graduate until June. Maybe that’s just what they want the Russians to believe. It’s definitlely not as soon as many had hoped.

Some people say Biden could do a lot for Ukraine without Congress, such as using frozen Russian funds or sending weapons under other authorities he already has. Some speculate the reason he hasn’t is he wants to pressure Zelensky to negotiate or that he “wants Ukraine to lose”. My slightly less cynical guess, if Biden is unnecessarily holding back aid, is he may be playing the same game with Ukraine as Johnson is with the border, hoping the GOP caves first, giving him a political victory that helps him in November. If that’s what is going on, the cost to Ukraine in the short run will be high.

Yeah, being a little cynical here, Ukraine war is generally good politics for Biden and bad for Trump as opposed to Israel / Palestine where Biden can’t win.

I think that he wants a Ukrainian victory in the long term but maybe prefers the current situation for most of this election cycle. Or if he can tilt the battlefield but only for a temporary period until these resources run out, then he will want to do that closer to November 4 and make it obvious to voters that the success can only continue with a Democrat controlled government.

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Supposedly he called his girlfriend back in Russia. Bad move.