This may lift Ukrainian spirits a little while they wait for Congress to get off its ass.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1738190259337167149?t=6-Vo3aBW-FAhd-70xpevQg&s=19
Unconfirmed rumor of a small number of F-16s already in Ukraine.
18 Dutch F-16s have been delivered according to Dutch newspapers but I would be surprised if they are already fully operational and flying combat missions. There is a big surplus of F-16s in the world so now all Ukraine has to do is train pilots for them and keep those pilots alive. Flying defensively over your own territory helps with keeping them alive. Big question is if Russia is now going to use their most modern fighters to counter these F-16s as so far they haven’t really used them.
Actual NYT email this morning.
Story does give some interesting background.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html or https://archive.is/frQRj
Nielsen speculates on how Ukraine shot down four Russian SU-34s and an SU-30 in the last few days. He doesn’t dismiss F-16s. Most people say no, but it has been a pattern that systems get used before they are acknowledged to be present. Seems like F-16s would need longer-range missiles than they might be getting though.
The landing ship was probably hit by Storm Shadow or SCALP long-range cruise missiles. May have taken out a shipment of Iranian Shahed drones.
Scottish prof speculating that the US really doesn’t want Ukraine to win. Anything to poke holes in, war experts?
Non-paywall link: https://archive.is/CxnkC
The article is paywalled, but I’m skeptical that the theory explains reality better than the fact that Biden is constrained by a Republican House that is vehemently opposed to funding Ukraine at all.
There have been complaints and speculation along these lines for a while on twitter. The Rs in the House being jackasses amplify the narrative that the West wants to deal at Ukraine’s expense.
Biden has been trying to thread the needle on aid from the beginning. At times that’s seemed like the best course, but not so much atm. More support will eventually be approved (at the cost of immigrants getting screwed) but that probably won’t change the vibes.
a version of this sentiment has been around since summer of 2022. even people who really really really want ukraine to win can’t grasp that the us president can’t unilaterally send all the weapons at his whim to any country for whatever their war requires. it looks bad even when it’s an emergency shipment to allies without asking congress, but in reality there are many international agreements that could easily be violated if certain munition is launched at a certain target.
having said that, the pro-russia side is adeptly using this as a wedge, i.e. us/west does not give ukraine permission to fire into russian territory, therefore they don’t want ukraine to win. it’s also a bit of a stretch. the west wants ukraine to win, but not outright pivot to war powers.
there are people who understand the nuances (Ben Hodges) and are in favor of biden administration stating more willfully that ukraine must win, shifting the overton window of what kind of military aid that necessitates, and not being afraid of another putin tantrum. i think that’s reasonable, but i also understand biden administration is managing multiple crises at the same time. ukraine is a big part, but for a lot of people it’s not the biggest part.
Parts of a thread
https://twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511995713135443969?t=TTDmNAT-Kwkqfrc7VWJQ7g&s=19
https://twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511995720836001792?t=oAVPtEoQ88IMuPhDwCX7GQ&s=19
Sushko says this is the Russian version of Amazon. Russian Bezos gonna be pissed.
the U.S. has denied the Ukrainians the weapons they need to hit Russian targets, even in the parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies. This raises the question: Does Mr. Biden want Ukraine to win?
Guess prof standards are LOW in the highlands
The US effective Thursday officially cut off all Ukraine aid pending Congressional action.
What happened to the pусская леди?
let’s check in on how russian attacks on ukrainian energy grid are going.
oops! the all too familiar late 80s are back.
other sources produced interesting reporting on the causes. eg the pipelines that had undergone maintenance recently had higher failure rates than those that didn’t. and some pipelines from the 70s were never maintained. plain old corruption caused this because central heating utilities embezzled their budgets and didn’t upgrade the pipelines to modern standards, or sometimes at all.
Lots of chatter and speculation over this today.
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1746667924650143790?t=Hqj0oqGKCGCbL0ff_l5_rQ&s=19
Oh, I had assumed it was something like a transport aircraft. I guess that’s akin to an AWACS?
Yes, and they are supposed to be short of them. Earlier in the war one was attacked and damaged by drones while parked at an airbase.