Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Gordon Lightfoot should write a nice tight 12-minute song about it.

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Reuters reports that Chancellor Scholz is finally getting off his ass and allegedly pledges 1 billion Euros of military aid to Ukraine. It will be interesting to see what that includes and how soon it can be delivered.

I saw on Forbes that the US has already shipped a third of it’s Javelin stockpile to Ukraine. If that is depleted, I suspect the Ukrainians can launch them faster than the US can manufacture them. Fortunately, at that the point the launched Javelins and allied missiles will have depleted the Russian stockpile of armored vehicles.

Something has shifted. Maybe indisputable evidence of war crimes? Other countries are involved. The US is supplying weapons. Is this the closest we’ve been to nuclear war since Cuba? Seems a real threat. Some tactical flex. And then?

No.

I love these “unboxings”.

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Which part cause seems like yes

100 mil helmets

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I think its partly that these decisions take time.

People need to build consensus, work out the lay of the land, gauge what is politically possible and politically popular, then put actionable plans together.

On top of that. Yeah. It looks like Ukraine might win.

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I’m guessing that Ze’s interview and Russian state media now openly discussing nuclear potential has opened a new layer of reality.

This kind of. Why would Zelensky wait until now for this candid discussion? I don’t remember him speaking of nukes like this previously.

Something seems to have moved the needle. Maybe new indisputable evidence of war crimes like someone mentioned upthread.

I personally wish Biden would have an epiphany and just go HAM on providing aid and weapons. America should be willing to perish in the same way that we were built.

I am sure the reasons are varied and complex, but I would guess that the indisputable evidence of war crimes by Russians in Ukraine (photos are very powerful ldo) are playing a major role.

That’s a pretty crass thing to joke around about so I don’t have a lot of sympathy for them, but it definitely doesn’t sound like they’re were having a serious discussion.

The chances of it happening have gone up. The worse it goes for Russia the more likely it is. May reach a point where they don’t have enough conventional arms left to win, it’s either go home or tactical nukes. And Russian media is openly talking about it.

They’re probably less scared about Russia being able to actually carry out the types of attacks they’re threatening, either because of the trajectory of the war so far or because of Intel.

the danger was ALWAYS that if/when putin started losing, he’d escalate to the kind of weapons that would net russia something it can call a win.

It’s fricking scary.

Would tanking world markets be a win for Russia? Logistically speaking.

There is speculation there may have have been nukes on the Russian cruiser. I don’t think they represent any special threat at the bottom of the sea but ofc it can’t be good. The possibility has been mentioned a few places, including here

But

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1514979332971716619?t=wZf2CJs5coVV6helRz1SEQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1515117621653524491?t=IQQ5UwfNbc-Kmpw2uvAWJQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/1514829591646457860?s=21