Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

“of course the invasion was provoked.”

I think that’s a reasonably accurate summary but how the hell is that not a civil war? Russia supports the Donbass militias, of course that’s true. They’re still militias made up of people from Donbass. I’ll certainly concede that Russian support of those militias was instrumental. Well, except I can’t really concede that as I never suggested otherwise.

It was, in fact, the Russians fighting the war against the Ukrainians.

You’re the one who brought it up today. I didn’t tell you to fuck off out of the blue. You were hostile towards me in many posts before that.

shit man and here I thought google was supposed to be infested with Western propaganda. Be better google!

Cluster bombs are bad because a small percentage of the shells don’t explode and go one to be dangers for a long time. That sucks for the country that where the war is. The country where the war is right now has decided it’s worth it, and that’s a fundamental difference that matters in this context.

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Let’s read your article:

The war in Donbas ,[b] or Donbas war , was an armed conflict in the Donbas region of Ukraine, part of the broader Russo-Ukrainian War. The war began in April 2014 when armed Russian-backed separatists

These began as Russia invaded and annexed Crimea.

In response, Russia covertly sent troops, tanks and artillery into the Donbas.

If I google the 'War of Northern Aggression", the US Civil War pops up too.

Since you can’t click on things

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  1. It becomes less of a pure civil war once actual Russian troops cross the border and start fighting alongside the separatists.

  2. When the US supplies arms to Ukraine to help them fight against the Russian invasion, you call it a proxy war and (correctly IMO) point out that that assistance changed the shape of the war, possibly prolonging it. Do you also acknowledge that the Russian were arming the separatists as a form of proxy war against the more pro Western government in Kyiv? Did arming the separatists possibly prolong the conflict and lead to more death than just letting Ukraine remain unified?

I don’t have a better historical example that comes to mind, but when Caesar conquered Gaul, he did so in part by making alliances with various gallic tribes against others. Certainly, there may have been a state of war between certain tribes, but once you have the full power of Rome on your side and the legions are fighting for you against your enemies, it doesn’t feel quite right to call it a civil war anymore.

The native Ukrainian contigent that may have joined an anti-Kiev militia was small, militarily incapable, and had no weapons to speak of. They were already led by Russians, they had already received some Russian assistance and yet they were on the verge of losing until a massive infusion of Russian forces, equipment and command and control started defeating the Ukranian military.

Somebody linked something here a few months ago, maybe it was devil or Jonny, but the few hints we had about the sentiment of Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine was that over 90% of them favored independence from Russia when they voted in 1991. The Civil War angle is factually wrong and provides a figleaf for Russian interests, the Google results you linked are wrong, what can I say.

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Brought up nationalism? You brought it up just before you told me to fuck off. The hostility is me reflecting back your intransigence and snarkiness. It’s hard to be completely civil.

I don’t know, you seem to be saying that when Kiev was kicking the separatists ass that was a good old fashioned civil war. When Russia is arming those separatists to the teeth and sending volunteers, Not A Civil War. Doesn’t matter much what you want to call it as we seem to largely agree that’s factually what happened.

Well not exactly as I don’t think the Russian objectives were primarily to fight the US. Or their objective at all. Whereas the US was arming Ukraine, in the words of the great Adam Schiff, so that we can fight the Russians Over There and we don’t have to fight them Over Here. That’s what I think of when I think of a proxy war. The fight is the point, the setting is largely immaterial. Like it’s like if the Joint Chiefs got their way and the US invaded Cuba during the missile crisis. You wouldn’t say the point was to fight a proxy war with the Cubans and their Soviet patrons. Whereas that was part of the motivation for the Soviets in Vietnam I think, and certainly for the Americans in 1980s Afghanistan. The Soviets maybe cared some about spreading glorious socialism in Vietnam but the US for sure didn’t gaf about Afghanistan. That was a pure proxy war in motivation.

Sure.

OK, well you brought up me telling you to fuck off today like I did it out of the blue. It wasn’t, it was because of many posts of your sneering hostility.

Hmm. Well I interpret fuck off to mean don’t ever talk to me again. But you responded to me today. And not in a particulary friendly way. Hence, sneering.

The reason I said I didn’t have a better example coming to mind than Caesar in Gaul is because it’s a bad comparison between warring gallic tribes and the state of Ukrainian society in the east. Nobody was at war in the east, the militias were astroturfed by Moscow, and without overwhelming Russian support they would have been put down in a month. This is not a civil war, if 20 people take over the Michigan legislature and hold it hostage for 3 weeks it’s not a civil war.

There’s tens of thousands in the Donbas militias. If you’re equating them to 20 guys taking over the state capital, well, I’m the one who’s misrepresenting things? Again, yes, Russian support for the militias was instrumental. That’s not in dispute. But it wasn’t twenty guys or something, give me a break.

The tone today was a reflection of your tone for weeks and weeks. Don’t like it? Well, like I said the other day…

I normally don’t like to give forum homework, but you can read through this if you’re interested in a more researched version of my view

and it goes over stage by stage who the Russian separatists were and weren’t. My comment about 20 guys taking over the legislature refers specifically to the gangs of assorted criminals, neo-nazis, J6 style trolls, that took over administration buildings in early April 2014.

Abstract

How the armed uprising began

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How much support do you think the militias had among the citizens of the Donbass in 2014-22? Like if you had to throw out a figure.