Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

At this point does it matter if US did it? They will have enough plausible deniability that it’s not going to lead to escalation months or years after the fact, while at the same time Biden’s threat was backed up.

I still think it was probably Ukraine but supported by USA or maybe some faction within Russia. This idea of Norwegians being involved seems wrong but why does it really matter cares if it is or isn’t?

It only matters if it affects support for the war. I suppose someone could argue that if the Russians did it, that means they are acting irrationally and more likely to go crazy with nukes, so it would make prolonging the war more bad than if you were sure Russia wouldn’t engage in nuclear escalation.

What contention? “You guys will never guess who blew up the pipeline” contains some sort of contention? It wasn’t a contention at all, it was a snipe at the people in this thread who eagerly believed the laughable US propaganda that Russia inexplicably blew up infrastructure it built, controlled, and profited from.

but as long as we’re going down memory lane it’s still true that Jake, Vicky and Joe haven’t been asked about this as far as I know. Democracy Dies in Darkness.

Yes? That the US was responsible for blowing up the pipeline. The same contention the article you agree with makes.

Sy is making that contention. I think he’s probably right but there’s obviously no proof other than his word. Yes, I think it’s true but we don’t have access to the sort of proof that Sy has and we can’t evaluate it. It’s mind boggling that you’re trying to make a federal case out of this. It’s so stupid.

I’m fairly sure it was the Brits that did the pipeline job seeing as no helicopters, boats or subs were lost in the operation (downed on the way in) /CIA looking, USian english speaking ops caught floating round in ribbed boats off the coast - and no-one knows who really did it. Classic Special Boat Service IMO.

Underwater ops must be an area the US train in but I’m struggling to remember the last time such US skills might have been required. If we need bombs pushing out of the back of planes, we know where to come, right. Large convoys of Iraq’s leaving the battlefield, call the Yanks. Need a pipe detonating in a ‘sea’ (like an ocean) somewhere to the right…not so much

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My takeaway is to keep it simple. Who has the motivation? Ukraine. Who has the capability? The US. So the most likely operation was some kind of joint venture between the US and Ukraine, most likely with the US providing training and the Ukrainians the personnel to provide plausible deniability for the US. That’s why the European reporting, that the operation was done with a small crew on a rented out boat, seems the most right to me.

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Ukraine surely had the motivation but so did the Biden administration. I don’t see why Ukraine backed by the Americans is more likely than just the Americans doing it. If the US did involve Ukrainians it would probably be to give cover and deniability for the Biden administration, rather than the Ukrainians having some motivation that the American government lacks.

Looking forward to the “leftists” here continuing to rail against Ukrainian freedom and self-determination.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1638565780844363776

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The “leftists” ie in inverted commas, are people like you.

No one is doing that? Unless you’re somehow contorting yourself into saying that criticizing a particular US foreign policy is railing against Ukrainian freedom and self-determination.

You sure about that?

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Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong but

  1. You don’t think Ukraine should join NATO and believe that them wanting to do so is what caused this conflict

  2. You think Ukraine should continue fighting without US assistance (meaning they will get rekt) and/or concede/negotiate a settlement which will obviously be under favorable terms for Russia

Not quite. I don’t think NATO should let Ukraine join NATO. So it isn’t a Ukrainian decision, it’s a NATO decision. I’m not criticizing Ukraine, I’m criticizing my own country.

I don’t think the US should give weapons and intelligence to Ukraine. I don’t have an opinion on what Ukraine should do.

That’s convenient. Why don’t you spell out the possibilities of what would happen without US assistance? Or what you think should happen? Kind of nonsensical to have an opinion about the conflict otherwise.

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They’d probably either lose or negotiate a settlement with Russia. That’s how all wars end, total victory or a negotiated settlement.

But why the fuck do I need to have an opinion about every conflict in the world? If the US isn’t involved it doesn’t have anything to do with me or my country. I’m criticizing my own country’s involvement, nothing else.

So when I said you’re against Ukrainian freedom and self-determination which part was I wrong about?

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Budapest Memorandum. If Ukraine foresaw that United states of keeeed, (and UK and RF) as signatories who guaranteed Ukraine territorial sovereignty, would not in fact copmly, then they wouldn’t have given up their nuclear capabilities.

Idk I generally care about human rights and freedom everywhere. You can care about whatever you want. And people like me are free to point out that it doesn’t sound very much like leftism.

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