Careful, it’s important not to dehumanize genocidal maniacs.
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Not to mention that it’s not like Russia could keep a program to train 300k+ soldiers a secret, and Ukraine isn’t going to rest on their laurels if Russia is prepping an invasion force, nor will the Western world let them back into the global economy.
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My basic premise is that Russia can successfully use the nuclear threat to keep Ukraine from chasing Russia’s forces into Russia to finish them off. This something that has never really happened, where a nuclear power has lost a war against a direct neighbor and been pushed back inside their borders. I understand that is not something that is guaranteed to happen but I think it is likely that USA and EU would push Ukraine not to do a ground invasion of Russia or at least stop supplying aid in this case, which would drastically change Russia’s likelihood of success.
I guess I don’t see it as especially likely that every last piece of the Russian army is pushed all the way back into Russia by force. I’d expect a truce and a negotiated surrender before that. And if it is really as you say, that there is a total victory without surrender all the way to the border, the Russians aren’t going to have hardly anything left. It would take years to rebuild even without sanctions.
But if you’re Russia, why negotiate surrender if you can just retreat to safety? I don’t think the way the border works UA could get some sort of general encirclement of the Russian forces. I guess there could be a ceasefire negotiated ala Korea, but it seems difficult for Ukraine to assure that any ceasefire is not just a ruse to buy time and regroup. Especially considering how the original Russian tactics in Crimea in 2014 went.
Because as we’ve seen on the northern front, you can still get the shit blown out of you while you turn tail and run. There just isn’t a fast way to move 100k people under chaotic conditions. You gonna line up on the road with all your buddies and take a cheery drive back through the Ukrainian countryside?
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Joining NATO would probably assuage this concern.
The main deterrent to a future invasion is the Ukrainian Army. They will need a large standing at for the foreseeable future. NATO membership will help too.
Yeah sure but I understood that is a process that takes time and could be vetoed or delayed by any NATO member including Hungary? Actually seems like an exploitable strategy for Putin if he really wants to regroup and go back in.
Right, but we are right now seeing the UA fully flush with US aid. Would Russia still be deterred if that foreign support goes away and NATO membership doesn’t happen?
the celebration over kerch feels a little too optimistic. the rail line is going to stay operational, and one of the lanes appears holding, so i think it will get fixed pretty quickly. this being a special operation kinda implies that it’s not easily repeatable, the ru security forces are going to try to tighten up anywhere close to the borders. so it’s not the same as the antonov bridge strikes.
the main value will be psychological, this will cause many people to leave crimea, and there will be another morale dip for troops in kherson and melitopol. and on top of it, it should nudge thsoe around putin closer to a panic. imagine having to be the guy who has to go into the bunker and inform the bridge was hit and damaged.
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simultaneous strikes against other railway hubs — plus some where munitions start self-detonating — is very modern warfare. i’m telling you zaluzhnyj is going to teach at west point.
https://mobile.twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1578837124119683072
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russia decided to respond by hitting a civilian building in zaporozh’e. at least 17 dead and 40 wounded, plus whatever else they will pull from the ruins.
it’s okay though noone was dehumanized.
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That bridge is a sitting duck waiting to go down.
A few more HIMARS hits with the long range at those points and its over.
I’m pretty sure it’s not in range.
A precision strike kinda seems like it has more value as a threat of future strikes than for the damage it did.