Arguing we were supporting a stalemate was somewhat reasonable in the early summer. Saying it when we specifically gave weapons that allowed Ukraine to break russian supply lines and change the war is fucking stupid. We had this exact kind of discussion months ago. Repeating it now, after we specifically helped ukraine break the stalemate, is a waste of everyone’s time.
We need to move to the next mtracey talking point - that this is bad because we’re risking nuclear war with Russia. We’ve had that discussion too.
Moldova isn’t NATO and has already been threatened as the next target. After them, there are still a number of former Soviet republics that could be taken.
Russia has already failed to take what it wants in Ukraine and is losing more every day. Russia’s military is already defeated in any conventional sense. They would lose to Poland.
Ukraine should be in NATO and if Russia is concerned about that they can write a strongly worded letter, as with Sweden and Finland. As far as where Russia can go next, they can go back to Russia.
I’m going by what I hear the experts saying. The Russians should be able to stabilize their defenses. Idk exactly where or when but they are committing significant additional troops and there are natural obstacles. The Ukrainians will have to pause their advances to avoid logistics problems themselves. Support could be reduced at some point. The Russians are not going to regain the initiative but the Ukrainians aren’t going to push them all the way back to Russian either. I call that equilibrium because it’s a stable situation, at least temporarily.
Doesn’t really answer my question. You’re invoking some sort of updated domino theory for why we need to stand up to Russia in Ukraine. I’m pointing out that doesn’t really make any sense because there’s not really anything left for Russia to invade as they’re surrounded by NATO on their eastern border.
I’m not invoking a domino theory. Ukraine is a nation itself that wants to live as a free people. That’s enough. Same with Moldova/Transnistria and Serbia. Russia is an incredibly toxic actor in international affairs. They need to understand that they are about as powerful as Spain or Italy and are not a bulwark against “the west”.
I do not want them to lose in Ukraine, I want them to be humiliated, not because of domino theory but because they deserve it.
I’m not saying that Russia is winning. I’m not even saying that Biden’s strategy is to encourage a costly for Russia stalemate – that’s my intuition and hope at this point, I certainly might be wrong. I’m saying that if Russia does lose decisively some scary shit could go down. Seems to me that the people certain that Putin will handle a humiliating defeat with humble equanimity are the ones speaking shit into existence.
Maybe. Most of the new packages being announced now are for weapons that won’t be delivered for six months or more. Stuff that needs to be manufactured, not immediate aid out of stocks.
Russia has lost over 1/3 of its pre war army. The new conscripts are armed with 19th century bolt action rifles without many bullets and zero training. Russian economy is in shambles and they can’t manufacture much new military equipment. What they started using has broken down or probably will soon due to poor maintenance and corruption.
Ukraine mobilized and spent over 6 months training conscripts who have high morale and now a larger military than they did at the start of the war.
I don’t see why they can’t be pushed all the way back, in fact I expect the advances to continue more and more rapidly. When Winter comes it will probably be much worse for the Russians who they probably won’t even have supplied the conscripts with coats since they didn’t plan for this to go past a few days let alone a year, and they treat the conscripts as meat shields.
i doubt it, but that’s what the ru telegrams are claiming. after RU retreated from kherson region villages, AFU is combing the population for russian passports and apparently taking the people away.
