So like the internet then. Although I think that was for horses or something.
If Putin is an absolute dictator with little fear of being overthrown, why do so many Russians have to keep falling out windows?
Both Putin and the war seem to be popular in Russia. If Putin has anything to fear from a coup, it isn’t at all clear that that coup would come from pro-Western factions. Are pro-Western factions even a significant power center in Russia?
I wouldn’t expect a pro-western coup, just another contender looking for a shot at the title.
If the war is popular in Russia, what happens to Putin’s popularity if he loses it?
That makes sense, but for the many who are rooting for a coup, an implication of that hope is that the successor would be better for the West than Putin.
But one thing that doesn’t follow is that autocrats don’t have anything to fear from a coup. The only thing keeping a coup from happening is often the violent and murderous reaction that any dissent provokes from the autocrat’s security apparatus.
Putin obviously knows he must win the war in Ukraine.
But if the war goes badly after this mobilization and Putin loses popularity and faces a coup, is a pro-peace coup more likely than a hardliner coup? Fingers crossed!
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Kim Il-sung signed the Korean Armistice Agreement.
And Saddam Hussein agreed to a cease fire and withdrew from Iran.
Idi Amin signed a peace agreement ending a war with Tanzania.
Whoever ousts Putin would then own the war and its outcome. So the way I see it, the coup could come from people who think escalation (a full mobilization and/or use of nuclear) could win the war or it could come from those who want to negotiate a peace. The war going poorly is a deterrent for anyone else to do a coup.
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I guess Putin gave a speech today on annexing parts of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1575839183687790594?s=20&t=ALLniG-SRgv_AiyI69Jvhg
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1575840901124980737?s=20&t=ALLniG-SRgv_AiyI69Jvhg
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1575842271152705536?s=20&t=ALLniG-SRgv_AiyI69Jvhg
In his speech today, Vladimir Putin said the United States had created a “precedent” by using nuclear weapons against Japan at the end of World War Two.
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Huh? I think the most hopium-infused take on the potential benefits of a coup that I can recall are simply that the new dictator wouldn’t be so stupid as to keep sacrificing hundreds of thousands of his citizens in a losing effort, not that he’d be some Yeltsin-esque pro-West reformer.
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I don’t think it’s clear that Putin’s power is truly as absolute as Saddam’s. Putin at least puts up a farce that he has popular backing to give his authority legitimacy. The Russians conduct sham polls, and they hold sham elections, and there’s a sham legislature that passes whatever Putin wants but that at least gives cover of popular signoff on what he wants. I don’t think that was true of Saddam. If things get so bad that protesters fill Red Square day in and day out like they filled Tahrir Square in Cairo, does Putin just start slaughtering them until they disperse? I’m not sure, but I think Saddam would.
So, I don’t think it’s reasonable to use a binary classification of “under threat of revolution if defeated” or not. It’s better to use a continuum, and I think Putin isn’t as close to Saddam on that continuum as you suggest. He certainly isn’t acting like he is.
This is explained by the fact that this scenario is extremely far removed from what Russia considers its minimum outcome for the war, something which will have to change in order for there to be peace (unless Russia can force Ukraine’s minimum to change).
This also seems to be out of line with what both sides consider a minimum outcome, and no side has been beaten back enough to change that attitude.
The war sure seems popular in Russia, that’s why draft officers are getting murdered and there’s been a mass exodus of men out of the country.
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Overall popularity may matter a lot less than popularity among core supporters, or popularity among people with power around you, at least depending on the situation. We mock Trump for, ahem, trumpeting his 96% approval rating from the Republican party even while his overall is sub 40%, but that matters a ton when the Republican party gets to pick one of two candidates. Similarly, the popularity of the war among ethnic minorities in the hinterlands matters a whole lot less than that of ethnic Russians in Moscow, which also matters a whole lot less than that of actual key holders in the Kremlin.
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The idea here is that the fascist strongman declares that he enjoys the popular support of all True Patriots. What is a True Patriot, you may ask. Well, it’s a person that supports Dear Leader! This is the model of Republicans and people like Bolsonaro as well. Its a self fulfilling belief system that allows fascist supporters to justify their objectively oppressive actions.
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Sadaam was elected President twice - in 1995 and 2002. Both times had 100% turnout. The first time he got 99.99% of the vote, but shored up that remaining .01% to get a perfect 100% in 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Iraqi_presidential_referendum
They also held elections from a Council of Representatives, but only Baathists were every elected.
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Conceded. It’s been a while since Saddam.
oh keeed. 90% of people asked choose not to participate in polls on putin and the war. but here’s keeed, reposting whatever he has read on /r/meashjeasmer over here. everything old is new again, and it coincides with big putin moves in the news as well