Which country is most likely to have sabotaged the pipeline?
- Ukraine
- US
- Russia
- A European country outside of Ukraine/Russia
- A non-European country
0 voters
Don’t sleep on the Alpaca industry. Could be Perú, imo.
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Are the gas pipelines that run through Ukraine still running? Last I heard they were.
This settles it for me.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1575549820173160448?s=20&t=80k9EVLtJ4vO7W6xGTAs5w
yes they are. gas through ukraine and belarus. although it’s important to note that neither pipe is running at full capacity, and hasn’t for years. in general pipeline capacity was not the limiting factor for natgas exports. at first the infrastructure was over provisioned for the demand, and now it’s overprovisioned for the supply as well. gazprom has had tried to avoid shitting some locations, but eventually they also had to close them up, after the local storage facilities got filled up
IMO it’s Russia.
Among the other possibilities I think Ukraine is doubtful because the risk of damaging their relations with the west (and in turn their supply of weapons) is too great.
I think US and China are about equally likely because they both benefit from Russia not being able to as much gas to the EU and are both capable but also have way too much to lose from getting found out to have likely done it.
This doesn’t benefit the other European countries in any way. It messes up their energy markets and takes away a carrot they could offer Russia in a potential peace negotiation.
I am not really clear on the technical capabilities required. It would make total sense for some terrorist or environmental activist group to want to do that, and to choose to do it at the time the pipeline is shut off, but it seems people are saying this would require technology only available to state actors.
Nordstream 1 was operational when the explosions happened.
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It was operational in the sense that it could be used, but it was not in operation.
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You guys forgot another reason that Putin would do this. He knew he could count on Tucker Carlson and his adjacent weirdos to blame the US and/or Ukraine for it.
Dude is a one trick pony:
- create chaos and confusion
- ???
- Profit!
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It might not really be overall +EV for Russia but
- create chaos and confusion
- Energy prices increase
- Profit!
This would also benefit others ofc.
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Maybe Putin blew up the pipeline to distract attention from a bunch of his troops getting captured because he forced them defend an untenable position.
environmental damage from the damaged pipelines is already estimated to be equivalent to 5m cars or something, in terms of gas leaking into the atmosphere. it doesn’t include marine system impact in the area. so, i doubt it’s environmentalists like greenpeace or similar.
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2 only benefits those who can sell gas at market rates. which gazprom currently cannot in appreciable quantities
yeah, that’s plausible too. playing the victim is an important way to propaganda. to the west, it’s a signal that other pipelines at the bottom of the sea are vulnerable.
A rising tide lifts all energy producers?
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so, Qatar is in play?
I’m just thinking of this STOS ep, Journey to Babel.
KIRK: But what would they gain by an attack on Starfleet?
SAREK: Mutual suspicion and interplanetary war.
KIRK: Yes, of course. With Orion carefully neutral, they’d clean up supplying dilithium to both sides and continue to raid Coridan.
Eta: crazy coincidence, this episode is on at this very moment on H&I.
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Hopefully the environmental damage will be contained. I would think they could build an open-top concrete dome over the leak, build pipes up to the surface, then put a valve on it. Then again, the leak may expel all the gas currently in the pipeline and then Russia could just shut it off. No point in just having their gas leak to the atmosphere.
It still strikes me as a crazy dumb move for Russia, but that’s not new and most knowledgeable people seem to think Russia is responsible. They “outplay” competitors by unpredictably shooting themselves in the foot.