https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1550479281427566594?s=20&t=XF4_AexqxVvuQZCTIIxLsA
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Russian offensive stalled / regrouping in donbas.
Ukraine pushing towards Kherson.
I don’t see russia holds on the kherson if ukraine blows up the 2 bridges for good. Russians already not using the main kherson bridge to bring heavy equipment over.
A kherson retreat would be absolutely humiliating for russia.
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These pictures are heart breaking.
HIMRS has limitations. Apparently the Ukrainians used it to hit the Kherson bridge but did only light damage. They probably need to hit it with manned aircraft dropping large bombs, which would be difficult.
It didn’t take the whole bridge down but it can’t be used for heavy equipment anymore either.
Did you see the holes? I think the structural integrity of it is compromised. 1 more barrage of HIMARs at the same area would probably finish it off. Imagine hauling those tanks over and they weigh 40 000lbs. Apparently the Russians don’t use it anymore to ferry over heavy weaponry. The bridge is useless now even if it stands.
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In March, after Poland proposed transferring MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine, the Pentagon rejected the offer, calling it “high risk.” The U.S. intelligence community assessed that transferring the Russian-made aircraft would risk a response from Moscow that could result in a direct military conflict with NATO.
That assessment, however, only applied to the Russian aircraft, and it appears that the administration believes that western-made fighters may not pose the same risk.
Uhhh, what?
Give them the A-10. It’s the only good plane we got.
I mean, multiple cars are crossing it at a time. It’s obviously not useless, but it is compromised. It does seem like the Ukrainians could make it useless if they could hit it with a few more salvos, but they probably had to pull back after the first so as to avoid a Russian counterattack.
the bridge attack was a demonstration of precision, and it is impressive, six shots or something grouped very close on one section of the bridge. it will be easier to repair as well, if they manage to make it weak enough to prevent heavy equipment comeinf back.
the strike also warned the russian garrison in kherson to leave while they still can, if they can ride out in light vehicles.
Seriously? My first thought was this couldn’t be real.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1550589163082338304?s=20
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The encirclement has been reported multiple places. Or do you mean that you don’t think they would make this kind of threat?
I mean that it’s pretty fucking rich for Putin’s army to be asking for quarter given what they’ve done/are doing. Drop your guns and surrender, assholes.
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From where I’m sitting, though, it seems hard to overstate how important Kherson is. If they can get the Russian forces there to surrender, AND if they can also then cross the Dnipro (an enormous if), then they’re not far from cutting off all of Russia’s southern resupply lines and even isolating all of Crimea if they can strike that one bridge. That plus taking Kupyansk in the north to cut off those supply lines is when I think Russia might think about trying to make some sort of a deal to save face. Of course, that’s another enormous if, and the last one is if Russia isn’t able to keep making advances into e.g. Slovyansk and Bakhmut on the front that they’re pushing hardest on.
From all the reports I’ve seen, surrendering to Ukraine sounds way better than trying to desert back to Russia.
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So as far as I can Kherson seems like a potential slaughter incoming. They’re pinned against the Dnipro to the South and East. They don’t control the North. They don’t control the East. They can’t resupply because of the river.
If they can’t hold, they don’t have a safe retreat point. Since they can’t resupply, how the fuck are they going to hold?
To me, expert military general obviously, it seems like the smart thing is to organize a tactical retreat to preserve the Crimean supply route. You can use the river and some heavy artillery work to do most of the work.
Doesn’t seem like Russia is willing to tactically retreat like that though. Also, maybe too late?
I don’t think that Russian troops could survive a massive retreat across the bridge that’s already been hit or across a new pontoon bridge. HIMARS is gonna make that a really bad time if they’re already hitting that one bridge like they are. Seems like it might be a game where the Ukrainian forces are forcing the Russians to choose either losing a shitload of troops on that bridge or surrendering now while the bridge is in a state that the Ukrainians could repair without too much trouble, which could be even more damning to the Russian war effort. And both sides know that the Russian troops there are pretty unlikely to suffer more severe consequences from Russia by surrendering earlier rather than later, so how many of them are willing to sacrifice themselves to help the overall war effort by dying on that bridge?
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I think I was shortsighted for thinking that the Ukrainians tried but failed to destroy the bridge with one salvo. If the Russians are already asking for a retreat path, then it seems way more awesome to demonstrate that they could destroy the bridge without actually destroying it so as to force the surrender while also being able to repair and then use the bridge in a timely fashion.
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Hard to imagine that many right? Wouldn’t be surprised if they abandoned equipment and took little shuttles over the river and ran.
A mass surrender could setoff other issues too. Russian morale can’t be that great.
Russia lost an entire BTG at a failed river crossing in the Severodonetsk area. If Russia wanted to pull all their forces across that bridge, then anything capable of shelling the bridge could wipe out everything on the bridge plus everything lined up waiting to get over, which would be totally helpless once the bridge fell. Even if they can save the people in little boat runs across the river, that’s a massive loss of armor and artillery. And speaking of morale, you wanna be one of the last holdout artillery gunners trying to give covering fire to your buds while they all try to retreat across the river?
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