He must have prepared for the debate by ardently studying Glem’s twitter.
The only ‘good news’ I have seen recently (if it can be believed). Seems like Ukraine are coming under heavy pressure in the east, for the time being anyway.
russia tried to expand its breakthroughs encircling severodonets but they met resistance. last operational success was the city of liman, which they overwhelmingly bombed out with artillery, and ukraine defenders retreated hastily. ru telegram channels were giddy. that was like 3 days ago. no ru advances since then allegedly.
the news yesterday is that lnr/dnr conscripts got into a shoot out with ru forces in donbass, while back in donetsk a protest/mutiny is brewing or something.
meanwhile ukraine has a successful counter attack around kherson where they made it over a river, probably not dniepr but inhulets, slowly taking away positional advantage.
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Dunno what this means but might be problems for Severodonetsk (thought that was what Surf was refering to)
Ukraine is pleading for long-range weaponry to resist Russia’s advance, but the US has so far not offered it.
Doesn’t seem to be true anymore. This was posted before:
Selected from a long series of tweets:
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1530930465821032449?s=20&t=fzYIiRo2_k5QuqMxTr-EKQ
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1530930469004578825?s=20&t=fzYIiRo2_k5QuqMxTr-EKQ
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1530930476000608258?s=20&t=fzYIiRo2_k5QuqMxTr-EKQ
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1530930481063247875?s=20&t=fzYIiRo2_k5QuqMxTr-EKQ
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1530930482363387904?s=20&t=fzYIiRo2_k5QuqMxTr-EKQ
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1530930486763212801?s=20&t=fzYIiRo2_k5QuqMxTr-EKQ
The experts aren’t sure what will happen here. And based on past performance, they shouldn’t be.
The reporting on the long range rocket systems seems speculative, even deceptive.
All the stories are describing the MLRS and HIMARS systems as long range rocket systems with range well in excess of 100 km. However, that’s only when used with the ATACMS short-range ballistic missile which is compatible with both (range 100-200 km). Standard rocket ammunition is only tens of km.
Until ATACMS are confirmed, it is not clear that the US is considering long range rockets. ATACMS would likely be a considerable escalation and I would not expect them to be sent, but we shall see.
Note also from the CNN story: The US MLRS can launch shells over 500 kilometers. This quote is attributed in the story to “Olga Skabeeva, a prominent Russian TV host, said on her high-profile show on the state network Rossiya-1.” In fact, however, the MLRS doesn’t launch “shells” 500km, but that reference is to the Precision Strike Missile which is in development only, not fielded by the US Army let alone intended for Ukraine.
Had dinner with some friends tonight, the husband is from Russia (has lived in USA#1 for about 30 years and is a citizen). Nothing real new here, but he hates what Russia is doing and says they are becoming like North Korea.
Also said his parents, who also live in the US, are basically split on it. His mom only watches/reads Russian media, so she gets fed the propaganda and believes it. His dad watches/reads other stuff, primarily Ukrainian outlets (they are originally from Ukraine) and understands better what’s going on.
I think this is because Ukraine’s allies and Russia are doing a little dance, with the media as an intermediary, to understand where the line is, and to nudge it back and forth. Wiki says the ATACMS range is up to 300 km, depending on the variant. The US could maybe end up delivering one of the shorter-range variants. The 500 km number could be due to issues of translation or the host’s limited expertise so I wouldn’t pay much attention to that particular detail. The only thing I take from that is that they’re trying to fix the line and saying “this is too far”.
Fwiw, ATACMS are no longer being produced, so there is limited stock [that’s what wiki said but not sure about this]. Cost is very high, google saying ~$800k/shot (?).
German news about the war the dont report many positive things. Aside from: the Russians will progress slower on urban territory they say the complete capture of Luhansk is around the corner and Ukraine will not be able to retake it. An independent Russian news organisation working from exile also reports that Russia hasnt given up on taken the whole Ukraine. According to Kreml sources the Kremlin believes that the West will not send enough weapons and money and in autumn they will need to find deals for energy they need in winter. Cant say I disagree. Serbia renewed deals with Russia for their gas despite wanting into the EU. Hungary is doing its thing. They my mood is pretty dark thinking about the overall situation and the outcome of that war.
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Long thread with Realist candy coating but outcomes are plausible.
Ex-Russian leader warns US over missiles
Earlier we heard US President Joe Biden say the US will not send to Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia.
Now, a Russian former president has called that view “sensible”.
Dmitry Medvedev, who led Russia between 2008 and 2012, warned if the country’s cities were “attacked”, Moscow would have to follow through on its “threat to strike the centres taking these criminal decisions”.
“Some of them are not in Kyiv at all,” he added, signalling the message was intended for nations further afield than Ukraine. “There is no need to explain what would happen next,” he says.
The back-and-forth follows reports that the Biden administration is considering sending advanced long-range rocket systems to Kyiv.
Severodonetsk firmly in Russia’s sights
Russian forces have entered the city of Severodonetsk as they continue their attempts to capture the eastern Donbas region.
A governor in the region has said the bombardment of the industrial centre is so intense that they have given up counting the casualties. It comes as President Zelensky visited Kharkiv to see the damage done to Ukraine’s second city.
Severodonetsk is now firmly in Russia’s sights.
If Russian forces take the city, they will almost have completed their conquest of the Luhansk Region – a major strategic aim. Maybe that’s why the Ukrainians are trying to hold their ground, despite fierce artillery barrages.
According to the regional governor, Russian troops are pushing toward the centre of the city. Serhiy Haidai said 60% of buildings in this once busy community were damaged beyond repair.
Like the battle for Mariupol before it, the fight for Severodonetsk is not simply a question of who holds the city when the guns have stopped, but what price they have paid for their victory.
Ukraine has lots of resources and some of the most fertile land in the world.
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@VoteForSocialists , how are we suppose to feel about this? Is Ukraine now the side that can’t believe what fell?
It connects Russia with Crimea, probably the best warm water port in all of Russia, which has military and economic significance.
https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1531367206948261888?t=tN1jShEuy5lGI1r3gxKaLA&s=19
Not clear what exactly they’re talking about or if anything can get their fast enough to make a difference in the fighting around Severodonetsk, say. Maybe something’s already been shipped.
And so. much. oil. It’s some of the most valuable and productive land anywhere in the world. Just an embarrassment of resources and fertility.
Maybe it outlasted your attention span.
Anyways, Ukraine is threatening Kherson after taking back Kharkiv. Russia is making very small gains in eastern Ukraine.
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While I kinda agree I think she misses one point: Russia has not the population to become an economic power house. Esp the population in the countryside still has a massive trinking problem but hey also lack the numbers. As of 2020 Russia had around 144 million people and is by far the biggest country on earth. Thats not even double the number for Germany or half numbers of the USA. We also can’t forget that Russia is corrupt as hell. So even if there was some kind of masterplan I doubt it will work out as intended if you dont start purging like the Chinese do with their corrupt officals from time to time.
It looks like Ukraine has already pulled out of Severodonetsk.